564 FXUS65 KRIW 221525 AFDRIW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 925 AM MDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ADD ISOLATED CONVECTION TO NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF CWA GIVEN LATEST MODEL RUNS AND TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH SPC OUTLOOK. .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DRY CONDITIONS LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF AREA WEATHER...THOUGH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY. THIS COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE THESE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THE NAM ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS IS LOW...THERE IS MENTION OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS IN IMPACTED AREAS. NEARBY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BRING ERRATIC AND GUSTY WIND ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPING IS LOW. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL LEAVE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DRY...HOT...AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. OF SPECIAL NOTE IS THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS. WIND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS...OR AT LEAST A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MONDAY STILL LOOKS HOT FOR MOST PLACES AND BREEZY AREAS. GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL FORECASTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THIS GIVES ONE HOPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME RAIN IN THEM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE NW U.S. AND A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO WY LATE IN THE DAY. THE MOISTURE AXIS IS PUSHED SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY ALONG A KBYG TO KEVW LINE. THUS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE GREATER ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE. ISOLATED AT BEST NORTHWEST OF THE LINE. ON WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE AXIS IS PUSHED OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME COOLING...BEST COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY. A WEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOW FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY AS THE 700MB WARM POOL IS PUSHED SOUTH FOR A DAY. NEXT FRIDAY THE MODELS DIFFER. THE GFS HINTS AT A WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE FLOW AND THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. ECMWF MODEL IS DRIER WITH NO WEATHER SYSTEM. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LITTLE CHANGE TO NEXT FRIDAY HIGHS...CLOSE TO NEXT THURSDAY FORECAST HIGHS. && .AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/ SAVE FOR THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG A KCOD TO KBYG LINE THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 17Z BRINGING 20 TO 30KT GUSTS TO MOST TERMINALS. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE ALONG A KEVW-KRKS-KCPR LINE. WIND WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 02Z SATURDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... HOT...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING TODAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL BRING DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS SOME ZONES TODAY. SOME AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT...DRY AND WIND CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE ELEVATED LEVEL OF FIRE DANGER. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME ZONES. PLEASE SEE THE RED FLAG WARNING PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...INCLUDING TIMING...LOCATION...AND INTENSITY. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ALSO EXISTS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME DRY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A BIT OF MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY WYZ277-279-280-285. RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283-288. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRANHAM LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...BERC FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM