448 FXUS64 KBMX 221504 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1004 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012 .UPDATE... FOR MORNING DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THIS UPDATE. TRIMMED POPS AND LEFT THE NORTHEAST WITH LESS THAN A 20 POP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUE TO OBSERVE LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.3 INCHES. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF SLIGHTLY BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED LATE YESTERDAY EVENING. KBMX MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS 700 MB TEMP HAS DECREASED FROM 11 TO 9 DEG C. THE NORTHEAST WILL ALSO HAVE THE LOWEST 500 TO 700 MB HEIGHTS/TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECLUDED BY RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND A LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND A VERY WARM AFTERNOON IS ON TAP WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S. 87/GRANTHAM && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS MAY SHIFT DURING THE DAY TODAY TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY NEARS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR TSRA EXISTS...THINKING THAT IT IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERN AREAS MGM/TOI SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF WEAK BOUNDARY AND KEEP EASTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL BE PRESENT AT TIMES 5-10 KFT AND COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD INHIBIT MVFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE A DIRECT IMPACT TO TAFS...OTHER THAN HOT FROM THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES IN GUIDANCE. 08/MNK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 93 68 95 69 96 / 10 10 10 0 0 ANNISTON 93 69 94 71 95 / 10 10 10 0 0 BIRMINGHAM 94 71 95 73 96 / 10 10 0 0 0 TUSCALOOSA 96 70 97 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 CALERA 93 71 95 71 96 / 10 10 0 0 0 AUBURN 92 69 94 70 94 / 0 0 10 0 0 MONTGOMERY 94 71 95 73 95 / 0 0 10 0 10 TROY 93 67 94 70 94 / 0 0 10 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 87/08