364 FXUS64 KCRP 182157 AAA AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 457 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012 .DISCUSSION...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS INLAND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER REGION WITH LATEST GOES SOUNDER IMAGE AND SPC ANALYSIS INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.9 INCHES OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AT 21Z WHERE SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM BROOKS AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO DUVAL COUNTY. THE WEAK MID LEVEL COOL POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEADING TO SLIM POTENTIAL FOR HAIL CLOSE TO SEVERE CRITERIA. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MID/UPPER LOW HAS SLOWLY MOVED W THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEX. THE LOW IS PROGD TO CONT TO SLOWLY MV W TO SW AND ACROSS S TX THRU TUE...BRINGING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TOWARD S TX. HAVE GONE WITH DECREASING RAIN CHCS THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TOWARD EARLY TUE MORNING AND SPREADING INLAND THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. MODELS KEEP THE PRECIP FROM REACHING THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DURING THE DAY...BUT WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHC BY TUE EVENING BEFORE PRECIP DIMINISHES. BY EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 06Z...THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REGENERATE ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND SPREAD INLAND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL BUT DID GO A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS/RAIN ON TUE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. MARINE...THE WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MOD LEVELS TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT ARANSAS. SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONT INTO TUE AND TUE NIGHT. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA'S AND TSRA'S WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS PROG PW VALUES TO INCREASE AOA 2 INCHES ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE TO THE WEST PUTTING PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CWA AND COASTAL WATERS WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR LATE INTO THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. ALSO...GFS/EURO NOW HAVE JUST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION. GFS PROG PWATS TO FALL AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES..SO THINK PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE STARTED TO TAPER OFF AND LOWER POPS IN LATER PERIODS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP AS WELL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 76 91 76 91 74 / 20 40 30 50 20 VICTORIA 74 91 74 91 72 / 20 40 30 50 20 LAREDO 77 100 78 97 76 / 20 10 20 30 20 ALICE 74 95 74 93 72 / 20 40 20 50 20 ROCKPORT 78 88 79 89 77 / 20 40 30 50 30 COTULLA 74 98 74 96 73 / 20 10 20 30 20 KINGSVILLE 75 94 76 92 73 / 20 40 20 50 20 NAVY CORPUS 79 88 79 88 78 / 20 40 30 50 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ TMT/89...SHORT TERM/UPDATE