977 FXUS61 KRLX 181857 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 257 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES DEPART EARLY THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWS FOR BUILDING HEAT THROUGH MID WEEK. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS TAKE UPPER LEVEL VORT EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT WITH IT AS WELL. RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT DOES. BIG QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS HOW LONG THE CLOUDS STAY OVER THE CWA. VIS SATELLITE INDICATES CLEARING OVER OHIO ATTM AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...AREAS THAT SAW RAIN TODAY COULD SEE FOG FORMING LATER TONIGHT AND TOWARDS DAWN. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY WITH RIDGE AND H85 TEMPS PEAKING BETWEEN 19-20C. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S IN LOWLANDS. SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAIN ZONES COULD TRANSLATE TO DIURNAL CU AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY TOMORROW. GUID TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT AS WELL AND JUST MADE A FEW TWEEKS HERE AND THERE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... GENERALLY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO MID WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF HOT WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 90S IN THE LOWLANDS AND UPPER 70S AND 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NIGHTS WILL BE MUGGY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. DESPITE THE RIDGE IN PLACE...STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...AND WITH WARM TEMPERATURES THINK AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SQUASH THE UPPER RIDGE AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS NORTH. GFS AND THE VERY END OF THE NAM POINT TOWARDS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BRINGING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM NW TO SE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT UP TO OUR DOORSTEPS...THEN WASHES IT OUT WITH NO PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WITH A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE LONG TERM...WILL HAVE POPS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH THE LAST ACTIVITY EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. BEING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...WE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...BUT STILL A WARM WEEKEND IN STORE...WITH TEMPERATURES AT TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. NOT CONFIDENT IN THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT...BUT ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...SHOW A DISTURBANCE RIDING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A LINE OF OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN CKB-CRW LINE WILL CAUSE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF MVFR TO IFR IN CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AROUND 30KTS AND BE OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 18Z TO 19Z. MVFG THE REST OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. VSBYS AND CIGS RETURN TO VFR FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RIDGING AND DRYING WILL START TO TAKEN PLACE. IF CLEARING TAKES PLACE THOSE SITES THAT SAW SOME RAIN TODAY MAY SEE SOME FOG AFTER 09Z. RIDGING TAKE HOLD AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TO 18Z TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE EFFICIENT CLEARING TONIGHT COULD NECESSITATE VALLEY FOG...AFFECTING SOME TERMINALS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JS