966 
FXUS65 KTFX 162052
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
252 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE THE LARGER BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA AND CREATE A MORE ZONAL AND LAMINAR FLOW WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER STRONG DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ADJACENT TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO KEEP THE WINDS STRONG
AND GUSTY BUT BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. BY MONDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER OREGON AND SOUTHERN IDAHO APPROACHES THE AREA
AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODEL CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SUK
  

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE 
NORTHWEST CONUS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER 
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD 
AND THERE WILL BE A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA DO 
NOT LOOK TOO HEAVY AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE GLACIER 
PARK REGION COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF LIQUID WITH AN INCH OR 
TWO OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FLOW 
ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL AND RESIDUAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ADVECTS OVER THE 
REGION. THURSDAY WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND 
BACK INTO THE LOW 80S BY FRIDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR NEXT 
WEEKEND IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY 
EASTWARD AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. 
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST 
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION PROVIDING 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS DRY. 
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF 
THE ROCKIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z. VFR 
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  74  49  63 /  20  20  20  40 
CTB  54  70  46  60 /  20  20  20  50 
HLN  55  76  51  62 /  10  10  10  30 
BZN  48  79  44  65 /   0  10  20  20 
WEY  41  72  41  61 /   0  10  10  20 
DLN  49  78  43  63 /   0  10  10  20 
HVR  54  76  50  67 /  20  30  20  50 
LWT  51  73  46  63 /   0  20  20  30 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUK
LONG TERM...EMANUEL
AVIATION...EMANUEL

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS