066 FXUS61 KCAR 122303 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 703 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 700 PM UPDATE: USING THE RUC MODEL AND RADAR TREND, HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT FASTER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON RH PROGS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON, AND THIS TOO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH WESTERN SECTIONS LATE THIS EVENING, BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE IT MAKES IT INTO EASTERN MAINE. NOT SEEING MUCH EVIDENCE OF SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT, SO THERE SHOULDN'T BE ANY THUNDER. HOWEVER HAVE INCLUDED THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING HIGH, 1 TO 1.5+ INCHES, BUT GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MAINE, WHERE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW EVENING. AMOUNTS DROP OFF AS YOU MOVE SOUTH AND EAST, WITH A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD GIVEN THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS; HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS APPEAR TO REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DEPARTURE TIME OF SHWRS E OF THE FA WED NGT WITH MAX THU 00-06Z QPF MSLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING RNFL...WITH ALL LOCATIONS DRYING BY THU MORN. WITH WINDS BECOMING N AT 5 TO 10 MPH BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE WED NGT AND ERLY THU MORN...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TM FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN THE WAKE OF RNFL...SO FOR NOW WE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS PD...BUT BRIEF FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF KEEPING CLDNSS AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS WITH THE UPPER LOW SE OF NOVA SCOTIA ACROSS SRN PTNS OF THE FA THU INTO THU NGT...SO WE LOWERED POPS BLO SLGT CHC AND ALLOWED FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG. WITH HI PRES BOTH AT THE SFC ALD ALF SLOWLY SUBSIDING SWRD FROM NRN/CNTRL CAN...FAIR SKIES AND LGT WINDS WILL CONT INTO FRI. LOW AND HI TEMPS WED NGT THRU THU NGT SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRI. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BRING EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION. AFTER A CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CRESTING OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOME SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE HIGH WILL THEN CHANNEL VERY WARM AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE FAR NORTH MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE DAYS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY...WARM AND HUMID. THE WARMEST AIR MAY THEN REACH THE STATE DURING MID WEEK WHEN TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY COULD SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY REACH 90 OR HIGHER IN SOME AREAS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CEILING AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND REMAIN MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW 1000 FT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: ALL SITES WILL INITIALLY BEGIN MVFR WITH LOW CLGS AND OCNL VSBYS BETWEEN 3 TO 6 SM IN SHWRS WED EVE AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY THU MORN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN CONT VFR THRU SUN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TOMORROW. WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. THEREFORE, NO HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. SHORT TO LONG TERM: BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA THRU SUN...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE N BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU INTO THU NGT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. USED A BLEND OF NAM12...GFS40 AND GMOS FOR WINDS AND KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS... LOWERED FOR BAYS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE COAST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOSTER/HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...FOSTER/HASTINGS MARINE...FOSTER/HASTINGS/VJN