293 FXUS61 KRLX 100750 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AIR EXITS TODAY. MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY...WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT PASSES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CONSIDERING ALL THE SUNSHINE WE HAVE SEEN FOR A WEEK...WAS STRONGER ON THE THICKENING CLOUDS TODAY FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH. MAINLY THICKEN AND LOWERING CIRRUS...BUT HAVE SOME 6 TO 8 THSD FT CLOUDS AROUND TOO. AS A RESULT...SINCE WE ARE FIGURING ON THESE THICKENING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...TRIED TO HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES...COMPARED TO COUNTIES FURTHER TO THE NORTH. SOME HIGHER DEW POINTS EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF FOG IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF CENTRAL WV. CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY SPELL...NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR PROLONG. ONLY A BIT FASTER INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING INTO NE KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELDS FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES...PULLING AN ELONGATED VORT MAX NORTH WITH IT. COMING FROM THE GULF...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE LADEN...ENDING OUR STRETCH OF LOW DEWPOINTS AND DRY WEATHER. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SHOULD HAVE PWS IN THE TWO INCH RANGE...AND STAYING THAT WAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. NAM A BIT FASTER ENDING THE PRECIP...WHILE GFS/ECMWF/SREF ALL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT TRENDED TOWARDS LINGERING POPS...THINKING WE SHOULD SEE SOME UPSLOPE TYPE PRECIP AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES. WENT WITH A SLOW COOLING TREND FOR HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE RIDGE MOVES OUT AND CLOUDS MOVE IN. LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL...AS CLOUDS LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HOW MUCH MOISTURE REMAINS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINS QUESTIONABLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DEW POINTS ARE HIGHER TONIGHT AS WE BEGIN TO LOOSE OUR CLEAN AIR. CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED A BIT FOR NORTHERN WV VALLEYS...WHERE A CLEAR SKY AND THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS...MAY YIELD SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. WITH DRY GROUND...CAN NOT FORESEE A WIDESPREAD OR PROLONG ISSUE. SOME LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN SHALLOW FOG 08Z TO 11Z...SAY AROUND ELKINS. OTHERWISE...HAVE THICKENING AND LOWERING CIRRUS FROM THE SOUTH FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY...WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS AT 5 TO 7 THSD FT AGL FORMING. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 00Z AND MAY CREEP FURTHER TOWARD KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES BY 06Z...WITH CEILINGS MAINLY 5 TO 7 THSD FT. VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCAL VISIBILITY ALONG VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF WV DURING THE PREDAWN THIS SUNDAY COULD VARY EITHER WAY...HIGHER OR LOWER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 06/10/12 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... AREAS OF IFR IN SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...KTB