537 FXUS65 KLKN 081551 AFDLKN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 851 AM PDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE GREAT BASIN AND SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS LATE SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO FREEZING IN MANY AREAS AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .UPDATE...DID A BIT OF TWEAKING TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO LOWER HIGHS A BIT AS IT APPEARS COOLER AIR COMES IN FASTER THAN EXPECTED LATER ON. ALSO TWEAKED POP/T-STORM COVERAGE BUT NOT BY MUCH. RCM && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 431 AM / SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE GREAT BASIN AND SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS LATE SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO FREEZING IN MANY AREAS AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CLOUDS MOVING OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA REVEALING THE 90KT UPPER JET CORE. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE PART OF THE STATE AS A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. NOTICED THAT THE MODELS WERE HAVING DIFFICULTY DISCERNING THIS SHORT WAVE AND COULD NOT ADHERE TO A FAVORITE MODEL CONCERNING THE CURRENT SW. THAT SAID...ALL SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR. EACH MODEL RUN PROJECTS THE INCOMING TROUGH TO BE A LITTLE DEEPER BY SATURDAY OVER THE LKN CWFA. WINDS WILL SHARPLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND DECOUPLE TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH THE TRUE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE PARENT LOW WILL BE ENTERING WA/OR...AND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN IN THE ENSUING 24 HOURS. BY LATE SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE CWFA. LITTLE QPF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING COLDER EACH MODEL RUN...NOW -9C H7 TEMPS PLUNGING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEVADA SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER IT WILL HAPPEN...ON JUNE 9TH. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWING UP ACROSS NE NV AS WELL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST ZONES TODAY AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FORTHCOMING WIND ADVISORY FOR SELECTED ZONES SATURDAY. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S UNDER CLEARING SKIES. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO A ZONAL DIRECTION MONDAY...WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO RISE. THE RISING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKS TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH...WHICH WILL APPROACH THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. IN GENERAL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FIRE WEATHER...ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES ARE UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY DUE TO PROJECTED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN SATURDAY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL AGAIN FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. ZONES 454 455 AND 457 ARE UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SATURDAY. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY... SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY... RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY... SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY... NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY. && $$ 93