997 FXUS61 KCAR 080745 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 345 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. 11-3.9 FOG CHANNEL AT 315 AM SHOWING FOG ALONG THE WESTERN DOWNEAST COAST AS WELL AS BETWEEN BANGOR AND HOULTON. EXPECT THE FOG TO FILL IN A BIT MORE BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE. COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO FIRE LATE THIS MORNING AND AROUND NOON AND BEGIN OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING EAST INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND COMING OFF THE OCEAN...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF TODAY'S CONVECTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED RATHER THAN ELEVATED IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE COAST. THAT BEING SAID...JUST CANNOT SEE THE STORMS BEING STRONG OR SEVERE. IF ANYTHING IS TO BECOME STRONG...IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH WOODS AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. FOR TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS INTO A STEADIER RAIN...WITH A DECENT SOAKING OF AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MOST PLACES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE AS WELL...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE RAIN GOING LONGER THAN OTHERWISE WOULD BE THE CASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12...GFS40....SREF AND ECMWF TO INITIALIZED POP GRIDS THEN HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FOR WIND GRIDS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GMOS DURING DAY AND ONLY GMOS AT NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE GMOS AND HAVE INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES. FOR QPF WILL BLEND THE GFS40 AND NAM12. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND BUILD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH GMOS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS MOSTLY FOR SMOOTHING. WILL ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HIGHER BY SEVERAL DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL LOW CIGS AND FOG FOR KBHB...KBGR...AND KHUL EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR IT HAS MANAGED TO AVOID THESE PRECISE SITES...BUT IT IS LINGERING OUT THERE AND EXPECT ESPECIALLY KBHB AND KBGR TO AT LEAST SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG EARLY THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP AND HELPS TO BURN IT OFF. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS/IFR COULD PERSIST LONGER THAN INDICATED IN TAF FOR KBHB...BUT CONSIDERING THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOT MOVED INTO KBHB YET AND MODELS ARE NOT HITTING THEM HARD OR AT ALL...OPTED TO CLEAR THEM TO VFR AFTER 12Z. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KT AND SEAS TO 4 FT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRANSITION TO GMOS WINDS. WILL LOWER WIND SPEED BY 10 PERCENT. FOR WAVES WILL USE THE WNA/4 TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 1 FOOT TUESDAY TO BETTER FIT GMOS WINDS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...FOISY/MIGNONE MARINE...FOISY/MIGNONE