336 FXUS64 KHGX 071755 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1255 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2012 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION && .AVIATION... WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE REMAINS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK GRAVITY WAVE HAS DISSIPATED AS THE WAVE MOVED WEST OF THE REGION. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WE SHOULD SEE DECENT HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MIDAFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNITES. SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS CAN BE SEEN IN A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA TERMINALS THAT IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS HOUSTON COUNTY. IF THIS LINE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THE TAF FOR CLL/UTS MAY HAVE TO BE AMENDED TO BUMP UP INTRODUCTION OF VCTS BY AN HOUR OR SO. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THIS EVENING AM EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR NORTHERN SITES AFTER 06Z AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. 38 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/ DISCUSSION... HAVE TONED/EVENED OUT POPS ACROSS SE TX FOR THIS AFTN. MCS TO THE NW HAS ALL BUT FIZZLED OUT...AS WITH ALL THE PCPN THAT WAS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. HOWEVER FROM THESE TRENDS WE CAN INFER THAT THE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA IS RATHER MOIST (ESPECIALLY FOR THE SRN/SWRN LOCATIONS) AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES ARE A GOOD BET FOR THE NRN/WRN LOCATIONS. SO SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING THIS AFTN/EVE COULD HELP TO PRODUCE SOME SCT TSRAS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM. 41 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/ AVIATION... NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES LIE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE WIND FIELD IS A BIT SCRAMBLED. AM EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO AN EAST WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY AND GRAVITY WAVE. THE HRR AND TEXAS TECH 3 KM WRF ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY VCSH FOR THIS MORNING FOR HOUSTON AMD COASTAL TAF SITES. THE SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN BY AFTERNOON. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COUPLED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SHOULD YIELD LATE AFTN STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CLOSER OVERNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY TSRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR CLL AND UTS. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012/ MCS IS SLOWLY SAGGING S/SE TONIGHT JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY TO SEE SOME RAIN ACROSS NW AREAS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY'S PRECIP FORECAST WILL TAPER FROM THE NW TO THE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID/UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NW. WITH HEATING SHOULD SEE SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM NEAR GLS TO SGR AND COULD BE A SFC FOCUS FOR STORMS LATER TODAY. THE MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SE IN OUR DIRECTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP FOR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR NW AND CENTRAL AREAS GIVEN THE PROLONGED LIFT THE LOW WILL PROVIDE AND DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS IN PLACE. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH NW AREAS CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOOD WATCH FOR THE THU NIGHT/FRI TIME FRAME. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING THE LOW OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...SO NUDGED POPS UP ON SAT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF RAINFALL COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER...SO THEY ARE TRICKY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL THINK SW/CENTRAL AREAS WILL HEAT FAIRLY WELL TODAY. MADE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN THAT RAIN IS LIKELY AND THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE ECMWF IS DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS CONCERNING THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF A WEAK FRONT AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. I HEDGED A LITTLE AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE NE HALF OF THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUES JUST IN CASE THIS BOUNDARY DOES REACH NE PORTIONS OF SE TX. 33 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 71 87 71 90 72 / 60 60 30 20 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 72 89 72 91 73 / 40 60 30 40 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 78 88 77 89 78 / 20 40 30 50 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...41 AVIATION/MARINE...38