032 FXUS61 KRLX 020702 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 302 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2012 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS IN PLACE...BUT MID AND UPPER DISTURBANCES LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 130 AM UPDATE... RELEGATED PRECIPITATION FCST OVERNIGHT TO JUST SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE FCST ION TRACK. PREV DISCN... AT 00Z...SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. MID LEVEL /500MB/DISTURBANCE AXIS PIVOTING QUICKLY NE...AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW IN MICHIGAN...THROUGH LOWLANDS TOWARD WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS FEATURE HELPED WITH THE GUSTY EARLY EVENING WINDS. IN ITS WAKE...HAVE WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING A BIT...BUT CERTAINLY STILL BLOWING OVERNIGHT...WHICH IN ITSELF...IS RARE HERE...FOR A JUNE NIGHT. MAINTAINING A 20 POP FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR DAWN SATURDAY AND FOR MAXIMUM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER WILL TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IT DOES. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ON TUESDAY AND EXITS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGHOUT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN WITH UPR LOW/TROF ACROSS NE CONUS AND STOUT RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS KEEPS AREA IN NW FLOW AND AT MERCY OF ANY DISTURBANCES ROTATING DOWN. MDLS ARE STRUGGLING WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN THRU TROF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRATOCU BECOMING MORE PATCHY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD BUT CELLULAR SAT AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS MVFR AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CIGS COULD DROP BELOW 2 KFT. CIGS SHOULD RISE ON MIXING SAT FOR VFR AREA WIDE BY SAT AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE THE MVFR THRESHOLD SAT NT. NOTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OVERNIGHT...THEN POP UP SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON ON THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT. IT MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FOR LATE DAY THUNDER SAT. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER OVER AN AIRPORT WILL BRING AT WORST BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. W TO SW SFC FLOW GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SAT WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MODERATE AND MAINLY FROM THE W. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HOLES OPENING UP IN STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS...RESULTING IN JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 06/02/12 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/30 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM