811 
FXUS63 KILX 281959
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
259 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE CHC OF PCPN TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER CHC OF PCPN THUR THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SHORT TERM...BUT DIFFER IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE LOCATION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRSS THAT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS LOOKS GOOD WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF THE LONG TERM MODELS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW. 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FRONT STILL LOCATED BACK IN IOWA AND MO AND MOVING INTO SOME MID
60S DEWPOINT AIR IN WESTERN IL. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLIER THIS
MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATED. SATELLITE LOOP SEEMS TO SHOW AN AREA
OF ENHANCED CU IN PARTS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL IL MOVING EAST.
HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS
WHERE DEWPTS ARE LOWER. SO APPEARS DEVELOPMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING SEEMS BETTER WITH THE
FRONT BACK WEST. THIS BEING POSSIBLE...WILL KEEP CHC AND LIKELY
POPS GOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN TAPER THEM FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST DURING THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAY HAVE TO ISSUE FORECAST WITH A PRE-FIRST
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. BEYOND
TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW THROUGH
WED NIGHT AS COOL CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. 

BY WED NIGHT...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BY THUR THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND SHOULD BRING LIKELY PCPN TO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY. MODEL FORECASTS SEEM TO INDICATE THE LOW PRSS AREA
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. PCPN TYPE SHOULD MAINLY BE
SHOWERS...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW BEHIND THE COMING FRONT
DUE TO THE COOLER AIR HOLDING BACK UNTIL WED AND LATER IN THE
WEEK. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK OK AT THE MOMENT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE LOW PRESS AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO
THE GRT LKS REGION THUR NIGHT. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FROM IL DIFFERS IN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER
THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS LINGER SOME OF THE PCPN BACK
IN THE AREA AS REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND SFC CYCLONIC
FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS SOMEWHERE IN THE
CWA THROUGH THEN. THEN EXPECTING DRY WEATHER SAT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN DIFFER FOR
MONDAY AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE ECMWF IS DRY. ANY PCPN WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2-THIRDS
OF THE CWA...SO WILL JUST HAVE SMALL CHC POPS IN THAT AREA FOR
NOW. 

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT BUT THEN WARM BACK
TO NORMAL AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AUTEN
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1245 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
NARROW LINE OF REMNANT ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH...FURTHER INTERFERING WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDER. KEEPING THE CIGS VFR. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY STILL POSSIBLE TO REFIRE THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASINGLY
SCT IN MODEL REPRESENTATION. KEEPING VC MENTION...AND CLEARING
QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIGHTER WINDS OUT OF THE NW.

HJS
&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED 315 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

BLOOMINGTON  94/1895 
CHAMPAIGN    94/1991 
DECATUR      94/1991+ 
EFFINGHAM    91/1991+ 
GALESBURG    93/2006 
LINCOLN      94/2006 
PEORIA       95/2006
SPRINGFIELD  94/2006

GEELHART
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$