181 
FXUS64 KMAF 150859
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
359 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM 
THE WEST.  AFTER A WEEK OF UNUSUALLY WET AND COOL WX... TEMPERATURES 
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.  CURRENT SATELLITE HAS MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER 
THAN SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS.  WILL START THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY 
CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE EAST WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF 
STRATUS OVER THE WEST.  CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.  
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR AS 
AIRMASS IS MOIST BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS 
SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. 

WILL HAVE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND 
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE EAST BY EVENING AND TO THE SOUTH BY 
MIDNIGHT.  THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER WX WILL RESULT IN 
A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS STARTING WEDNESDAY.  HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE 
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND BUT AM WONDERING IF MODELS ARE TRYING TO 
WARM THE REGION TOO QUICKLY CONSIDERING WET GROUND.  STRANGE FOR THE 
PERMIAN BASIN TO ACTUALLY BE OVER AN INCH ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL BUT 
SEVERAL RAIN EVENTS OVER THE PAST WEEK HAVE BROUGHT DESPERATELY 
NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

THE RAINY PATTERN HAS BEEN GREAT BUT IS ENDING TODAY.  WILL LEAVE 
LOW POPS IN TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AS MODEL GUIDANCE/QPF 
INDICATES SOME RAIN POSSIBLE BUT BELIEVE FOR THE MOST PART THIS RAIN 
EVENT HAS ENDED.  WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE FORECAST DRY EVEN THOUGH 
LOW POPS CREEP BACK INTO GUIDANCE AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  53  83  57  /  10   0   0   0 
BIG SPRING TX              76  54  83  58  /  10   0   0   0 
CARLSBAD NM                77  52  84  54  /  10   0   0   0 
DRYDEN TX                  78  58  84  61  /  20   0   0   0 
FORT STOCKTON TX           77  55  84  59  /  10   0   0   0 
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  52  79  57  /  10   0   0   0 
HOBBS NM                   76  52  84  53  /  10   0   0   0 
MARFA TX                   73  42  77  45  /  10   0   0   0 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    77  55  83  57  /  10   0   0   0 
ODESSA TX                  77  55  84  60  /  10   0   0   0 
WINK TX                    78  55  85  58  /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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