932 FXUS62 KMHX 100448 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1248 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1152 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE COAST AS OF 04Z TONIGHT AND SHOULD WORK ITS WAY OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. ALL OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE IN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HEADING TOWARD THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND DOWNSLOPING TAKES SHAPE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS OFFSHORE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF NW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AROUND 10 KTS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN VERY PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...COULD SEE SOME MID 40S IN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUN...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WITH HPC...WHICH HAS FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SE COAST TUE INTO WED. NEXT BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LIKE TUE INTO WED. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...ALL BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR INLAND WITH ONLY EWN SHOWING MVFR. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW TOWARD MORNING AND SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SOME CU/SCU WITH HEATING AND CAA ARE POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM WED...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. BRIEF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI AND SAT MORNINGS...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...GENERALLY WEST WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE...WITH LIKELY SOME 6 FOOTERS FURTHER OFFSHORE OF OUR CENTRAL WATERS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO INITIALIZE THE WINDS AT A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO NW AS THE FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM WED...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. COULD SEE SLIGHT SURGE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING WITH DECENT CAA...AT THIS TIME THINK NNW 10-20KT AND SEAS 3-5FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 2-4FT SOUTH. VERY PLEASANT AND BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUN WITH PREDOMINATE S/SW FLOW RETURNING AND SEAS 2-4FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152- 154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LEP NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...LEP LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CTC/CQD/LEP MARINE...CTC/CQD/LEP