794 FXUS63 KICT 100339 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1039 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2012 .AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY LONGER. AN UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS APPROACHING SW TX. THIS HAS LEFT A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SW BY THU AFTERNOON. LAWSON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2012/ AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER EASTERN KANSAS TRANSLATES EAST...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON THU. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SPEEDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED...OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. MWM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2012/ DISCUSSION... TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING APPROACHING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES & SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL PROMOTE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MODESTLY STOUT...ALTHOUGH WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST OVER CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN CONUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD PROMOTE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING...ALTHOUGH WEAK FORCING & INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AND SEVERE WEATHER. ADDITIONALLY...STAGNANT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EJECT EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. GFS IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN KS. HOWEVER...PER THE ECMWF...NAM & CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...THINKING THE GFS SOLUTION IS TOO AGGRESSIVE...SO WILL LEAVE SOUTHERN KS DRY ON FRIDAY FOR NOW. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO MIGRATING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS ARE BRINGING THE LOW FARTHER NORTH...BUT THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN TOO CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN...SO JUST CONTINUED THE THOUGHT OF SOME CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW GETS SWEPT UP BY A SHORTWAVE WHICH ALSO BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG WEATHER MAKER. WINDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES...THEN BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG HOWEVER...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING ON MONDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGHOUT MOST OF NEXT WEEK. KLEINSASSER/LAUGEMAN AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN KS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO THURSDAY...WHILE PRESSURES FALL TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT NE-ERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO SE-SRLY. SOME SRLY GUSTS ~20 KT EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS DIURNAL MIXING INCREASES. OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. JMC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 52 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 HUTCHINSON 50 83 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 NEWTON 51 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 ELDORADO 50 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 50 80 55 78 / 0 0 0 10 RUSSELL 50 86 57 77 / 0 0 0 20 GREAT BEND 50 85 56 78 / 0 0 0 20 SALINA 50 84 57 80 / 0 0 0 20 MCPHERSON 50 83 56 80 / 0 0 0 20 COFFEYVILLE 49 78 54 78 / 0 0 0 10 CHANUTE 48 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 10 IOLA 48 77 54 78 / 0 0 0 10 PARSONS-KPPF 49 77 54 78 / 0 0 0 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$