710 
FXUS61 KCAR 071705
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
105 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1300L: CURRENT FCST ON TRACK W/ NO SIGNIFCANT ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED ATTM. 

UPDATE 1015L: TEMPS RISING MUCH QUICKER THAN FCST AND EXPECT
CURRENT FCST HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA NOT HIGH ENUF SO HAVE
ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND RAISED MAXES A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE 0600L...
LET FROST ADVISORY EXPIRE.  OTHERWISE...NO CHANGE.

USING H850 TEMPS AND GUIDANCE...EXPECT MID 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S
DOWN EAST TODAY...EXCEPT SOME LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. A SHALLOW
INVERSION WILL FORM TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS
WILL DIP TO NEAR 40F DOWN EAST AND LOW 30S NORTH. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR THE DOWN EAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST...BUT DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TONIGHT'S LOW FORECAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARM FRONTAL RAIN MOVING INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY EVENING. BEFORE RAIN STARTS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TO
ALLOW BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOSS OF HEATING, EXPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS MAY STAY UP ALONG
THE COAST AS 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO COASTAL
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. WARM FRONTAL RAIN WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH INCREASING TO
AROUND HALF OF AN INCH OVER DOWNEAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
MOVE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY DURING THE
DAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LOW EXITS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND FOG
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:  SEAS UNDER 2 FT AND LIGHT WINDS.

SHORT TERM: SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY PRODUCING SCA CONDITIONS
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...KHW/MCW
MARINE...KHW/MCW/FOSTER