635 FXUS64 KFWD 290809 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 309 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS FORTUNATELY REMAINED TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONTS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE FRONT BACKED NORTH AS EXPECTED AFTER DARK YESTERDAY EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE SHOWN A SLOW REVERSAL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LIKELY DUE FROM STORM OUTFLOW. 00Z FWD SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW A STOUT CAP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SIT JUST OFF OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ALOFT TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD MERIDIONAL UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALOFT LOOK ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS IF ISOLATED STORMS CAN INITIATE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. THIS IS A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO YESTERDAY WHERE IF A DELAY OCCURS IN INITIATION...THEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF I-20 INTO MONDAY WHERE THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED. THE CAP SHOULD KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH. NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WSW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH NO SURFACE FOCUS AND THE CAP MAINTAINING OVERHEAD. THE EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LEE- SIDE LOW WILL KEEP THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE AS THE THE MAIN SURFACE FOCUS WITH NO EXPECTATION OF ANY ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO THE CAP. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COMPLETELY LOST SIGHT OF ANY UPPER ENERGY WITHIN THE THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH FOR NEXT WEEKEND. INSTEAD...THEY NOW SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WHICH LIKELY MEANS A CONTINUATION OF THE VERY WARM...BREEZY AND DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BELIEVE MOS GUIDANCES ARE TRENDING WITH THE COOLER CLIMATOLOGY ON HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS NEARBY OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL GO ABOVE MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35 WHERE READINGS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S WILL LIKELY BE COMMON. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 86 70 86 70 88 / 10 10 20 10 10 WACO, TX 87 72 88 70 89 / 10 10 10 10 10 PARIS, TX 83 67 82 67 84 / 10 20 20 10 10 DENTON, TX 84 68 86 69 88 / 10 20 20 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 84 68 84 68 85 / 10 10 20 10 10 DALLAS, TX 86 71 86 70 88 / 10 10 20 10 10 TERRELL, TX 84 70 85 69 86 / 10 10 20 10 10 CORSICANA, TX 85 70 85 69 87 / 10 10 10 10 10 TEMPLE, TX 86 70 87 69 89 / 10 10 10 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 84 67 86 67 89 / 10 10 20 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 05/