208 FXUS62 KMHX 272351 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 751 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE IT LIFTS BACK N OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVE BACK SOUTH OF THE AREA AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 750 PM FRIDAY...THE DIFFICULT FORECASTS KEEP COMING. AN UNUSUAL ARC SHAPED FRONT HAS FINALLY WORKED SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE TODAY MUCH SLOWER THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. EASTERLY FLOW NOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN NC AND NOW THAT HEATING IS WANING...SKIES ARE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS POST FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 1500-2500 FT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS IN THIS REGARD WITH GFS GUIDANCE INDICATING LOWER CEILINGS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO ASCENT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION CAM (WRF-NMM/NSSL WRF) KEEP THE PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE MHX CWA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL MODELS (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) ALL DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ACROSS COASTAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC...ESPECIALLY FROM 06Z-12Z. THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS AND WERE USED IN THIS UPDATED FORECAST. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WILL BE TRIMMED BACK TO SOUTH OF THE PAMLICO RIVER. ALTHOUGH LIFTED INDEX FORECASTS ARE STABLE WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT MENTION OF THUNDER IN LINE WITH SPC THUNDER FORECAST AS ELEVATED CONVECTION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL STAY WITH CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUT IF CLOUDINESS IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP MAY HAVE TO NUDGE NORTHERN ZONES INTO THE UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WILL SEE A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRETTY STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE THIS INVERSION OVERNIGHT EXPECT LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN IT LIFTS BACK THROUGH AS A WARM FRONT. SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 17...BUT A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALL AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...COULD SEE TEMPS A BIT HIGHER IN SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG THE COAST IF MORE SUN BREAKS OUT IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RATHER TRICKY LONG TERM FCST AS A FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES TO TEH NE WILL WEAKEN/MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR WARM FRONT LIFTING THUR THE AREA WITH RETURN SFC FLOW DEVELOPING. THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER SUN MORNING...THEN DROP SOUTH AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. LARGE TEMP GRADIENT POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SW ZONES REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN OBX. LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT WITH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS A BIT BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON MONDAY. THE FRONT DISSIPATES SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACRS THE SE STATES. RISING THICKNESSES RESULT IN WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES TIED MAINLY TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... AS OF 750 PM FRIDAY...WILL FOLLOW THE NAM FORECAST AND FORECAST MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AT OAJ AND EWN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THE RAIN THREAT WILL WANE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO YIELD MVFR CEILINGS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... PERIOD OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR FOR EARLY SAT NIGHT AS FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. SCT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP BACK SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH AN INC IN CLOUDS AGAIN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MAY AGAIN SEE CLOUDS LOWER TO MVFR CAT THRU MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THU BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT. MAINLY VFR THEREAFTER INTO MID WEEK OUTSIDE ANY TYPICAL RESTRICTIONS DUE TO EARLY MORNING FOG. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 750 PM FRIDAY...BASED ON FORECASTS FROM THE WAVE WATCH AND SWAN WAVE MODELS THE ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS FORECAST. EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY THEN THE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY AROUND 15KT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SW FLOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS NE WINDS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY WITH SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2 TO 5 FEET. FLOW BECOMES S TO SW AT LIGHT TO MODERATE SPEEDS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSB/JME NEAR TERM...RSB/JME SHORT TERM...RSB LONG TERM...BTC AVIATION...RSB/BTC/JME MARINE...RSB/BTC/JME