892 FXUS61 KRLX 190808 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 359 AM EDT THU APR 19 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER WATERY FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN FOG WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY LATE MORNING AS SUNSHINE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD TIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MODELS FINALLY HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WILL GET FAIRLY SPECIFIC WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BAND. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT COOLER AIR WILL BE HERE FOR SATURDAY...SO WILL DECREASE HIGHS CONSIDERABLY AND LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. WILL ALSO LOWER POPS DRASTICALLY ON SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING DRY WEATHER. WILL LEAVE A SMALL POP IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SEEMS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE JUST REALIZED IT FORGOT TO DO THE LAST PART OF THE WINTER SEASON AND IS GOING BACK TO DO THAT NOW. THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FINDS A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROF...STILL JUST W OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN RESPONSE TO A CORRESPONDING SOUTHERN STREAM TROF CLOSING OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST. OF NOTE IS THAT THE 12Z ECMWF HAS JOINED THE OTHERWISE OUTLIER GFS IN TRACKING THE SYSTEM FARTHER E UP THE E COAST...AND FASTER. THIS SHIFTS THE PRECIPITATION E AND SPEEDS IT UP...LOWERING THE INTENSITY AND DURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE FCST PACKAGE FOLLOWS HPC CLOSELY WHICH REFLECTS MOSTLY THE SLOWER SOLUTION. HAVE HIGHEST POPS SUN MORNING WITH AN INITIAL WARM WAVE MOVING UP ALONG THE FRONT THAT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE A PRE. AFTER THAT...POPS GRADUALLY SHIFT E MON AND TUE. THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/W/S PHASE TUE...RESULTING IN A LARGE...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE NE COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN WRAP AROUND NW FLOW...WITH ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS MAINLY E...INCLUDING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BLENDED IN HPC...MOSGUIDE AND CONSALL ON LOW TEMPERATURES AND HPC ON HIGHS...LOWER THAN ADJMEX ALL AROUND. THIS KEEPS MOUNTAIN SNOWS IN THE FCST FOR LATE SUN NT INTO MON MORNING AND LATE MON NT INTO TUE MORNING. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN FOG COULD CREATE SOME OVERNIGHT ISSUES FOR AVIATION. SITES HAVE FALLEN OR WILL FALL SHORTLY TO LIFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AS THE SUN RISES THIS MORNING. BY 14Z...MVFR SHOULD DOMINATE THE SITES. BY LATE MORNING...CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD COMPLETELY DISSIPATE LEAVING VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/19/12 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L L L M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L M M L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L M L M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H L L M L L L L M M H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/RPY NEAR TERM...JB SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JB