009 
FXUS63 KPAH 101153
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
653 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION /12Z TAFS/. ALSO UPDATED THE NEAR
TERM /THIS MORNING/ TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FA...AND ALSO TO ADD A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE OZARK
FOOTHILLS AND LOCATIONS JUST EAST OF THEM FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) 
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

MAIN ISSUE WILL COME WITH FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND WED
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH LATE AT NIGHT MOST AREAS
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY STAY UP A
BIT TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL TO OUR NW OVER AND
THE DAKOTAS. ALSO...SFC DEW POINTS MAY STAY TOO FAR BELOW THE
ACTUAL SFC TEMPS TO PRECLUDE FROST. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES
FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL REISSUE SPS TO ADDRESS THE ISSUE.

WED NIGHT WILL BE A MUCH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...AND
WILL PROBABLY GIVE US THE BEST CHCS FOR PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FAR SE MO. WE STILL HAVE THE DRY
ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH THOUGH...AS DEW POINTS MAY JUST BE JUST A
BIT TOO COLD FOR MUCH FROST FORMATION. GUT FEELING THOUGH IS THAT
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME FROST COME SUNRISE THU.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

THIS PERIOD IS WHERE SOME PRECIP CHANCES COME IN AS YET ANOTHER
SPLIT LOW MID LVL SHORT WAVE TRUDGES EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE TREND WITH THE PAST FEW OF
THESE SPLIT LOWS IS TO TREND SLOWER AND SLOWER IN TIME
/PROGRESSION/ WITH ONSET OF PRECIP...AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OUT
TO OUR WEST. 

BELIEVE THE OP GFS IS ONTO SOMETHING HERE...AS IT WAS THE FIRST
TO CATCH THIS TREND LAST TIME. THEREFORE...WILL BE BACKING OFF
POPS IN MUCH OF THE WED THROUGH SAT TIME FRAME AT LEAST. WILL DROP
POPS ALTOGETHER THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND WILL BACK OFF FRI INTO
SAT. THIS SYSTEM MAY EVEN RETROGRADE A BIT SAT/SAT NIGHT LIKE THE
PREVIOUS...KEEPING MUCH OF OUR AREA MAINLY DRY AND DROWNING MO/IL
N/W OF US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS TODAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY) 
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

BY MID TO LATE MORNING...LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NWLY
AND INCREASE INTO THE 10 T 15 KT RANGE...HIGHEST AT KEVV AND KOWB.
SOME GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...SOME
7K TO 9K FT CIGS OVER KCGI AND KPAH FOR AWHILE THIS AM. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AS THE SUN GOES DOWN WITH SKC AND GOOD VSBYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

EXPECT TO REACH CRITICAL FIRE WX PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SWIN 
AND SOUTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE PENNYRILE PARKWAY.  RH REACHED 
20% AT EVV YESTERDAY WITH WINDS 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH. EXPECT THE 
WINDS TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH INTO KY TODAY THUS...PLAN ON RFW FOR 
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA THIS AFTN. WITH 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE IN THE 
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ENTIRE PAH CWA AND LOW RH...WITH SOME AREAS 
CURRENTLY SHOWING VERY POOR RH RECOVERIES... OUTSIDE THE STRONGER 
WINDS WILL USE AN SPS FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REST OF 
FA. 

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     ILZ078.

MO...NONE.
IN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     KYZ014>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEFFERT
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM....MEFFERT
AVIATION...MEFFERT
FIRE WEATHER...KH