276 FXUS61 KRLX 060542 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 142 AM EDT FRI APR 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... PLEASANT SEASONABLE DAYS WITH COLD NIGHTS INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...WITH A COOL WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 130 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. DESPITE WINDS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA GUSTING TO 10-15KTS TEMPS STILL MANAGING TO FALL AT ABOUT 2 DEG/HR...WHICH WOULD STILL RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZE NEAR DAWN. TEMPS ALREADY UPPER 30S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL CONTINUE FZ WARNING FOR NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FCST ON TRACK FOR MOST PART. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT SOME CIRRUS SLIDING IN FROM NW THIS EVE. ACROSS SW VA AND S WV MTNS... LLVL MOISTURE HANGING TOUGH ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN SLOPES AS EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING STRATUS IN. LLVL FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE NE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THOSE AREAS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLD BASES TO LIFT SOME...HOWEVER IT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. TWEAKED HRLY TMPS AND DEWPTS TO REFLECT TRENDS. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED FRZ WILL NOT BE MET IN WARNING AREAS ON A CO WIDE AVG...GIVEN LARGE DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AMID 25-30KT WIND ARND H925. MDLS HAVE RESPONDED BY KEEPING JUST ENOUGH OF A PUFF AT SFC THRU THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON CAA PROBABLY TO GET THE NUMBERS DOWN OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE OH AND FAR NORTHERN WV LOWLAND COUNTIES. STILL...IT IS FRZ OR NO SITUATION SHAPING UP TONIGHT...WITH FROST NOT LKLY IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP. ANY STRATUS ACROSS SW VA AND S WV MTNS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH MIXING AS DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT TOMORROW WITH SFC HIGH NOSING FROM N. WITH AMNT OF DRY AIR...LOWERED DEWPTS TOMORROW ON AVG 5 DEGREES...USING THE LAMP AS A BASE WHICH SEEMS TO REFLECT DRY AIR BEING MIXED DOWN. THIS WILL CREATE RH VALUES IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS FAR NORTH POSSIBLE. MIXING HEIGHTS ARND H85 TOMORROW. THANKFULLY FLOW UP THERE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH. STILL...10HR FUELS ARE FCST TO BE IN 7-10 PERCENT RANGE AND WITH RH DIPPING WELL INTO 20S WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20KTS ACROSS NORTH...MAY PRESENT A FIRE DANGER THREAT. A FIRE DANGER SPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR TOMORROW ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER OVERALL DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT IS STILL LOOKING TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE AREA...AS A CLEAR SKY...COMBINED WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. DID ELECT TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE FOR SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS...AND DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FREEZE WATCH TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA COUNTIES. ALSO NOT INCLUDED ARE RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...AND WEBSTER COUNTIES...AS THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM AT THIS TIME. WITH THE CLEAR/SUNNY SKY AND OVERALL DRY ATMOS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY...DECIDED TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WEAK/RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS AN EAST COAST TROUGH SETS UP. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP COOL WEATHER OVER THE REGION. MODELS DO VARY HOWEVER ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES MOVING THROUGH...WHICH ARE NUMEROUS. FOR THIS REASON...WILL NOT GET TOO FANCY ON TIMING OF POPS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY AROUND THE 15-20KT RANGE BY MID-MORNING PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SITES BUT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/06/12 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-034>037-039-040. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ010-011-019- 020-031-032-040. OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083-084. KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/SL NEAR TERM...JSH/50 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...50