283 
FXAK67 PAJK 051347
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
547 AM AKDT THU APR 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. UNDER THE RIDGE
A MARINE STRATUS CLOUD LAYER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COASTLINE.
THIS HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
A BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYER AT ABOUT 15 TO 25KFT. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD BACK OFF TO THE COAST AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY AND ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNNY BREAKS. THE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE SEEING AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURE TO DROP TO
THE DEW POINT...THIS WILL BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY. WITH THE DENSE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WATER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES INLAND AND SUNNY OVER BC...DUE EXPECT A SEA BREEZE TO SET UP
IN THE AFTERNOON SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND WINDS TO 20KT
THROUGH SOUTHERN LYNN/CROSS SOUND/ICY STRAIT/SOUTHERN CHATHAM.
OTHERWISE HAVE WINDS OF ABOUT 10KT FOR THE INSIDE WATERS...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SEA BREEZE KICKS UP SOME GUSTS TO 15KT.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO AFFECT THE INLAND AREAS SUCH AS
HAINES/SKAGWAY/JUNEAU WITH WINDS OF 10-15MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE BACK IN ALONG
THE COASTLINE TONIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES..MAY
SEE SOME DRIZZLE ASSOC WITH THE MARINE LAYER IN THE YAKUTAT AREA
AGAIN OVERNIGHT SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY ARE SEEING ALONG THE OUTER
COAST THIS MORNING.

THE MARINE LAYER WAS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE.
SPECIFICALLY BEING THE TIMING OF WHEN OR IF IT WILL BACK OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO THE LONGER THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND TODAY WILL
AFFECT HOW WARM IT GETS TODAY...AND THUS THE STRENGTH OF THE SEA
BREEZE. THE NAM12 DEPICTED THE LOCATION OF THE MARINE LAYER WELL
AND THE INLAND PROGRESSION...SO USED THAT FOR ADJUSTMENTS. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

HANNON