045 FXUS63 KEAX 012325 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 625 PM CDT Sun Apr 1 2012 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... April first has arrived, and it is no joke that the weather across the region is...beautiful. Todays weather is brought to us by a modest ridge that is shifting across the center of the nation today in advance of a trough currently making its way inland to the Great Basin. Upper air observations across the eastern Pacific today show a notable jet streak (>130 knots) racing down the back side of the trough, which adds confidence to the the recent days worth of model solutions that have been advertising the development of a cutoff low in the Desert Southwest from the base of the trough as we transition through Monday. Meanwhile, the trough in the northern stream will detach from the developing low, shifting up and over the ridge across the Northern and Canadian Plains, helping bring somewhat more seasonal temperatures back to parts of the Plains States for the middle of the work week. For Monday...with the low still taking shape in the Southwest, warm air advection under the ridge, that will still be in place across the region, should help support temperatures similar to today's. Precipitation wise, the overnight hours of Monday will need a little watching as the cold front settling south into the Plains reaches Kansas and Missouri. Focus of the nocturnal low level jet preceding the low indicates that decent accent should spread over the front across north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas Monday night, providing a good focus area for stormy activity, but can not rule out that some of the activity might wander east along the boundary into our region late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Therefore, have left chance POPs across the western reaches of the forecast area for Monday night. For Tuesday through Thursday...looks like a more robust potential for widespread rain will arrive as the low begins to shift from the Southwest through the Central Plains. Modest isentropic lift will precede the low into the Plains. Moisture availability will not be an issue this week as we are once again forecast to have precipitable water values well above normal in place ahead of the system, which seems rather reasonable given the lack of any decent flow to advect in drier air. So, given the slow progress of the low under the ridge, have continued to run with a broad brush of POPs from Tuesday through Thursday, but continued to leave the focus for likely POPs on Wednesday as the low shifts east across Kansas in this time period, maximizing our rain potential. Friday and into the weekend...another large trough will set up across the mountainous west and begin to shift into and through the Plains. As this occurs another spring front will be swept through the Plains, bringing a returning potential for thunderstorms to the region Friday night into Saturday. Cutter && .CLIMATE... Record Max Normal Max Warm Min Normal Min Kansas City April 02.......87...........62..........68........39 St. Joseph April 02.......87...........62..........65........38 && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs...main focus is on the potential for IFR stratus to redevelop overnight, similar to what occurred this morning across eastern Kansas. While all guidance is suggesting this possibility, surface temperatures will be warmer than last night and this may act against widespread IFR conditions. This is supported by forecast soundings. Given the uncertainty, will introduce a scattered IFR deck for a few hours around sunrise. Better chances for low cigs may exist further north across northern MO. Any low clouds will be quick to scatter out after sunrise. Hawblitzel && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ WFO EAX