888 FXUS61 KRLX 221805 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 205 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... RIDGING ALOFT DRIFTS EAST TONIGHT. DEEP CLOSED LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FRIDAY AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... LAST DAY FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINANCE THAT HAS GIVEN SUMMER LIKE WEATHER FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...CUMULUS FIELD GOING UP ON THE RIDGES...AND WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA AGAIN TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN A GOOD KEY TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS PATTERN...AND MOISTURE DEPTH ANALYSIS THE IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. REMAINS A BIT TOO LOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND ONLY EXPECT SOME CUMULUS THERE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO MIGHT FIND ENOUGH FUEL TO GET SOME TOWERING CUMULUS GOING. ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN WANE WITH SUNSET AS IT IS THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN. RIDGE DRIFTS EAST...AND THE DEEP CLOSED LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN ZONES COME EARLY FRIDAY AS POPS RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY. BRING IN CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX. AS USUAL...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCATIONS GETTING MULTIPLE ROUNDS. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...THERE WILL BE BETTER STEERING FLOW...WHICH REVERSES THE NORTH TO SOUTH DRIFT FROM TODAY AND PREVIOUS DAYS TO SOUTH TO NORTH AND BULK SHEAR VECTORS AROUND 25KTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COME BACK UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER WITH DEEP MOIST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A SLOW COOLING TREND COMMENCES BEGINNING FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE FRIDAY MAX TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 70S OVER THE LOWLAND AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. NAM SHOWS GOOD CAPE...1000-1600 J/KG...FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT IS REALLY LACKING IN SHEAR. SO STORMS THAT FORM WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REAL ORGANIZED OR LONG LIVED. STILL...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO WATER CONCERNS. NAM BRINGS BETTER SHEAR INTO MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IS LACKLUSTER ON PROGGED CAPE. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND DOES SHOW AROUND 800 J/KG CAPE AND 40KTS BULK SHEAR...WHICH COMBINED WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH POSSIBLE HAIL. TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO EFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND THIS AS MODELS HAVE SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET FOR MONDAY...CHANGING TO A GFS/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS THE MAIN AVIATION THREAT AGAIN TODAY...WITH SOME TOWERING CUMULUS ELSEWHERE...BUT MAINLY DRY FOR THE MOST PART IN LOWLAND AREAS. CB WARRANTED AGAIN IN BKW...BUT DO NOT HAVE IT IN EKN...AS IT LOOKS TOO DRY THIS FAR NORTH. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR FOG TONIGHT IN EKN. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT DO HAVE IT IN THE TAF FOR A COUPLE HOURS NEAR DAWN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FRIDAY...CARRYING CB IN THE TAFS IN THE WESTERN ZONES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY GET A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. IFR FOG IN EKN MAY NOT MATERIALIZE LATE TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN/STORMS THIS WEEKEND. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26