397 FXUS62 KMHX 191327 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 927 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM MON...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME AREAS REPORTING DENSE FOG...1/4 MILE OR LESS...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT WITH SPS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM MON...CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING A BIT FASTER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE FOG WILL BURN OFF ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING. CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN WV/VA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. TEMPS LOOK GOOD. BASED OVERNIGHT FCST OFF OF PERSISTENCE...AS STAGNANT HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL MEAN FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BY MIDNIGHT AND COULD BECOME DENSE IN INLAND AREAS LATE. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...ANOMALOUS WARM PATTERN WILL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MDLS ALL SHOW WEAKNESS ALOFT JUST OFF THE COAST TUE THAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS W INTO WED. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE FROM PERSISTENCE TYPE FCST WITH MAINLY WDLY SCT CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER THE INLAND AREAS THRU FRI WHERE BEST INSTAB IS EXPECTED. MOST OF THE MDLS SHOW BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WTRS/IMD CST TUE NIGHT SO CONT PREV FCST OF SMALL POP THESE AREAS. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE VERY MILD TEMPS WILL CONT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. WEEKEND FCST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS MDLS HAVE NOT LOCKED ON HOW TO HANDEL THE DEEP UPR LOW THAT WILL EMERGE FROM THE SW/SRN PLAINS. IT DOES LOOK UNSETTLED SO HAVE CHC POPS SAT AND SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL LIKELY GRAD COOL AS HGTS DROP. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/ AS OF 930 AM MON...FIRST FEW FRAMES OF VISUAL SATELLITE LOOP SHOW LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT VFR BY LATE MORNING ALL LOCATIONS. PREV DISC...SCT-BKN VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR TODAY WITH LIGHT/VAR WINDS. SIMILAR SETUP FOR MON NIGHT WITH FOG/BR DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 5Z SO ADDED MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS AFTER THIS TIME. LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRI/ WEAK GRDNT WILL CONT OVER THE REGION THRU MID WEEK WITH LIKELY CONT THREAT OF MAINLY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORN FOG/ST AND POSS IFR CONDITIONS. ANY PRECIP SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED AND MAINLY INLAND DURING THE AFTN SO EXPECT VFR TO DOMINATE FROM MID MORN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATER IN THE WEEK OFFSHORE HIGH PRES BECOMES DOMINANT WITH MORE PRONOUNCED S/SW LOW LVL FLOW WHICH TYPICALLY LOWERS THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM MON...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. VERY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREV DISC...WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST. LIGHT FLOW WITH GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS (POOR SAILING CONDITIONS) EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRI/ RATHER GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE PERIOD. VERY WEAK GRDNT EXPECT INTO TUE NIGHT WITH WEAK SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY. THRU MID TO LATE WEEK HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WILL BECOME DOMINANT WITH LIGHT SE FLOW WED BECOMING S/SW THU AND FRI. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY AOB 15 KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THRU THE PERIOD. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TL NEAR TERM...HSA/TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...BTC/RF AVIATION...HSA/BTC/RF/TL MARINE...HSA/BTC/RF/TL