640 
FXUS63 KILX 170828
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
328 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE WITH MORE RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLY TIED OR BROKEN. 
CONVECTION CHANCES IS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT WAVE EJECTING NE TOWARD IL/MO BORDER BY SUNSET WILL INCREASE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-72 AND CONTINUE CHANCES TONIGHT. SPC KEEPS
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL INTO SE MO...
NORTHERN AR AND WESTERN PARTS OF KY/TN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NW IL/SW WI NORTH OF I-80
AND WEST OF I-39 AND DRIFTING NE AWAY FROM CENTRAL IL. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST IL ALONG HIGHWAY 50 WITH LAWRENCEVILLE
VSBY DOWN TO 1/2 MILE. MAY NEED TO ADD PATCHY FOG INTO MID MORNING
OVER AREAS SE OF I-70. NEAR RECORD HIGHS AROUND 80F ON THIS ST
PATRICKS DAY AND RECORD HIGHS LIKELY IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY WITH
JUST A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IL
SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE DEPARTS IL. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS TO CONTINUE
UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S MON/TUE
WITH MORE RECORD HIGHS LIKELY TIED OR BROKEN. HAVE 20-30% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MON-TUE WEST OF I-55 CLOSER TO UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND EJECTING SHORT WAVES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND
TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. EASTERN IL SHOULD GENERALLY STAY DRY AND
WARM DURING THIS TIME. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WEST
OF IL MON AND MON NIGHT WHERE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE. 

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW SHIFTS
EAST TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS
TUE NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN AND SW AREAS BY WED NIGHT FROM PEORIA
TO TAYLORVILLE WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW TO BE NEAR IL THU AND
FRI WITH COOLER WEATHER AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. 

HUETTL

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1149 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012
SOUTHERLY WINDS...SCT CIRRUS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...VFR
THROUGHOUT. FAMILIAR SITUATION FOR TOMORROW...SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...MID MORNING CU DEVELOPMENT...FROM SCT TO BKN BY MID
DAY...WITH SOME DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE
DISTANT SW ON SAT IMAGERY POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GENERAL
THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND HAVE TRIED TO TREND THE FORECAST
THAT WAY. CB ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON...VCSH AND CB FOR
SPI AND DEC AT THIS POINT. TOO EARLY TO CALL WHERE THE TS WILL SET
UP.

HJS
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$