711 FXUS61 KPHI 150824 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 424 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. A FRONTAL ZONE, APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER IS NOT THREATENING TODAY, THE FORECAST IS CHALLENGING. THE NAM HAS HISTORICALLY DONE BETTER WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR THAT WAS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE AIR MASS. WE HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM THAN GFS WITH REGARD TO THE SOUTHERN PENETRATION OF THE HIGH AND HENCE WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS AND THE WINDS. WE ARE NOT PLAYING THE DRIZZLE CARD AT THIS POINT, AS EVEN THE NAM DOESN'T SEEM TO BE HITTING THAT REALLY HARD DURING THE NEAR TERM (ALTHOUGH YOU CAN FIND IT ALONG THE NJ COASTLINE IN BUFKIT). ON TEMPERATURES, THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF CHOICE BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE. BASICALLY, THE FURTHER NORTHEAST IN THE FORECAST AREA ONE GOES, THE MORE OUR TEMPERATURES RESEMBLE THE COLDER MET VALUES. WELL SOUTH AND WEST, WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MAV VALUES. THERE LIKELY IS GOING TO BE A 20 DEGREE F OR GREATER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE NAM DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH MEANS WE CALL FOR STABLE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. THERE ARE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES ON TAP, AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME FAIRLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT. WE HAVE THAT FRONT NEAR OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, AND SO WE ARE GOING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE EVERYWHERE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AGAIN RESEMBLE MORE CLOSELY THE COLDER MET VALUES NORTHEAST AND THE WARMER MAV VALUES SOUTHWEST AS THE GUIDANCE REMAINS DISPARATE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON FRIDAY. POPS WERE ONLY CHANGES SLIGHTLY...WITH LOW LIKELY POPS IN MOST AREAS FOR THE DAYTIME. THE POPS WILL THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND ONLY BE SLIGHT CHC FOR THE SRN AND ERN AREAS SAT MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE 1/4 INCH OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT SUN-MON. THE FEATURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S MOST DAYS...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH. READINGS COULD REACH THE MID 70S IN SOME AREAS...AWAY FROM THE OCEAN...ON TUE AND WED. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE FORECAST IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE. PRESENTLY, WE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT ACY TODAY, BUT IF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THAT WILL CHANGE FOR THE WORSE. WE FORECAST MVFR CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS EVERYWHERE TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND FOG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD TAKE ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY, BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IN EXCESS OF 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THE LOWER CONDITIONS FROM TONIGHT WILL CARRY INTO PART OF FRI WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY SAT MORNING. VFR SAT AFTERNOON INTO MON. && .MARINE... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS DROPPING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CAUSE SOME MODERATE EAST WINDS OVER MOST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS UP THE BAY. SEAS WILL RISE SOME IN RESPONSE, BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH FIVE FEET. OUTLOOK...THE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FRI MAY BRING SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT...BUT LOW CONFID IN THAT ATTM. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPW/DELISI NEAR TERM...DELISI SHORT TERM...DELISI LONG TERM...O'HARA AVIATION...DELISI MARINE...DELISI