524 FXUS63 KILX 111542 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1042 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1042 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012 NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...HOWEVER VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM ARRIVING UNTIL CLOSER TO EVENING. 15Z RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SHOWERS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...BUT CORRESPONDING SURFACE OBS INDICATE LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES THUS FAR. HIGH-RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTS ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 21Z...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. HAVE MODIFIED POPS JUST A BIT...MAINLY TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A RUSHVILLE...TO TAYLORVILLE...TO FLORA LINE AFTER 4 PM. BARNES && .AVIATION... ISSUED 610 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET AT SPI BY 20Z WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING WEST CENTRAL IL BTWN 20Z-23Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONCE THE RAIN STARTS...IT SHOULDN'T TAKE MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP FOR CIGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET IN RAIN AND FOG AFTR 02Z. SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER AS WELL BUT COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN ANY ONE TAF SITE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP. MID LEVEL DRYING STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH ACRS THE AREA IN THE 07Z-10Z TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD BRING THE RAIN TO AN END BUT KEEP AT LEAST MVFR CIGS GOING THRU 12Z BEFORE WE SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. SFC WINDS WILL BE SSE TODAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 12 TO 17 KTS BY AFTN WITH A FEW GUSTS ARND 25 KTS POSSIBLE BY EVENING AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SMITH && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 155 AM CST SUN MAR 11 2012 UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. HAS MADE SLOW PROGRESS... CURRENTLY CENTERED IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS IS ADVANCING NORTHEAST TOWARD ILLINOIS. ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN SPREADING OVER MISSOURI...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE RAIN LAGGING BEHIND AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS TO MOISTEN UP FIRST. TIMING OF THE UPCOMING RAIN EVENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS THE INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN. THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS PACKAGE IS THE LONG PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER...MORE TYPICAL OF MAY THAN MARCH. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW MEXICO LOW...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY THIS EVENING AND REACHING NEAR MINNEAPOLIS BY MIDDAY MONDAY. WILL SEE THE INCREASING LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL RATHER DRY AT THAT POINT. SO...HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE CWA STILL APPEARS TO BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST...BEFORE DRY SLOT BEGINS TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH TO YIELD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TONIGHT. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW PULLING AWAY...AS NAM MODEL INDICATES ENOUGH OF THE COLD CORE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS HANGING ON. FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THESE SHOWERS IN THE NORTH TO THE MORNING HOURS. WITH RAPID CLOUD INCREASE TODAY...DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE RATHER WARM...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING EVEN FURTHER ABOVE NORMAL. POTENTIAL OF REACHING MID TO EVEN UPPER 70S WILL BE INCREASING DURING MIDWEEK. SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY BY WEDNESDAY. A DECENT FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL TRANSPORT 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY UP HERE BY WEDNESDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING AT OR JUST BELOW THAT LEVEL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TIMING OF ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...AS ANY UPPER WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND FAST MOVING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA MAY SEE MORE OF A THREAT THAN THE NORTHWEST. GEELHART && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$