475 FXUS63 KILX 110756 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 156 AM CST SUN MAR 11 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 155 AM CST SUN MAR 11 2012 UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. HAS MADE SLOW PROGRESS... CURRENTLY CENTERED IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS IS ADVANCING NORTHEAST TOWARD ILLINOIS. ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN SPREADING OVER MISSOURI...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE RAIN LAGGING BEHIND AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS TO MOISTEN UP FIRST. TIMING OF THE UPCOMING RAIN EVENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS THE INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN. THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS PACKAGE IS THE LONG PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER...MORE TYPICAL OF MAY THAN MARCH. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW MEXICO LOW...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY THIS EVENING AND REACHING NEAR MINNEAPOLIS BY MIDDAY MONDAY. WILL SEE THE INCREASING LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL RATHER DRY AT THAT POINT. SO...HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE CWA STILL APPEARS TO BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST...BEFORE DRY SLOT BEGINS TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENOUGH TO YIELD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TONIGHT. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW PULLING AWAY...AS NAM MODEL INDICATES ENOUGH OF THE COLD CORE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS HANGING ON. FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THESE SHOWERS IN THE NORTH TO THE MORNING HOURS. WITH RAPID CLOUD INCREASE TODAY...DID NOT STRAY TOO MUCH FROM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE RATHER WARM...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... UPPER FLOW TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING EVEN FURTHER ABOVE NORMAL. POTENTIAL OF REACHING MID TO EVEN UPPER 70S WILL BE INCREASING DURING MIDWEEK. SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY BY WEDNESDAY. A DECENT FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL TRANSPORT 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY UP HERE BY WEDNESDAY...WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING AT OR JUST BELOW THAT LEVEL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TIMING OF ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...AS ANY UPPER WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND FAST MOVING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA MAY SEE MORE OF A THREAT THAN THE NORTHWEST. GEELHART && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1151 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012...FOR THE 06Z TAFS LLWS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS THE NOCTURNAL JET HAS DEVELOPED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PER ILX VWP. WE INCLUDED WS AT ALL TAF SITES...DESPITE THE WINCHESTER PROFILER SHOWING WINDS A BIT WEAKER THAN OUR VWP. SCATTERERS MAY NOT BE AS PRESENT AROUND WINCHESTER YET. LLWS CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY ONCE MIXING OCCURS SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15G25KT SUN MORNING. WE EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY MORNING FROM SW TO NE AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES TOWARD IL. THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD SW MISSOURI. WE HAVE A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS C ILLINOIS...SO THE SLOW FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WE HELD OFF ON PREVAILING RAIN UNTIL AFTER 00Z...WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES. ONLY WENT DOWN TO MVFR...BUT PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SHIMON && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$