900 FXUS64 KBMX 062126 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 326 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012 .DISCUSSION... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFF TO THE EAST...OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL START TO DRAW SOME GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL IN TURN BRING MORE MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...AND ALSO CONTINUE THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND THAT BEGAN THIS AFTERNOON. BUT ANOTHER BIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LURKING OUT WEST...AND THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF THAT TROUGH WILL DETERMINE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF IMPACT WEATHER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. 12Z MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT WE SHOULD STAY DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST. FROM THERE...THINGS START TO GET TRICKY. THE MODELS STALL THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ALTHOUGH EACH HAS A DIFFERENT VERSION ON EXACTLY WHERE. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHING THE FRONT ALONG SLIPS OVER THE TOP...AND EVENTUALLY GETS INTO WHAT COULD BECOME A PRIME CAD WEDGE LOCATION IN THE NORTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE...THE MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING THEIR USUAL DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW EXACTLY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH(S) LIFT OUT FROM OUT WEST INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS ALL LEADS TO A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE'S BOUND TO BE SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT RAINFREE CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN. TRYING TO PINPOINT THE RAINY AND RAINFREE TIMES IS QUITE PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT...SO AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WAS TAKEN WITH THE FORECAST. ONE THING THE MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE ON IS THAT EVEN WITH SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS... THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR PRESENT TO ORGANIZE THEM INTO SEVERE STORMS. /61/ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE NC/VA COAST AND WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. LOCALLY...WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST...AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES DUE TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE RANGE FROM 10-20KTS TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IS IN FULL SWING...WITH WINDS AROUND 2K FT AT 140-170 DEGREES AT 30-35KTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY LLWS PROBLEMS GIVEN SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 5-8KTS OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT BOTH TO OUR WEST AND EAST...WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT ANB AS LOW CIGS TRY TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS GA. 14 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 43 69 52 73 57 / 0 0 0 10 30 ANNISTON 46 68 53 72 59 / 0 0 0 10 20 BIRMINGHAM 49 70 56 73 60 / 0 0 0 10 20 TUSCALOOSA 49 73 55 75 61 / 0 0 0 10 20 CALERA 49 70 55 73 60 / 0 0 0 10 20 AUBURN 47 68 53 72 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 MONTGOMERY 49 73 55 75 60 / 0 0 0 0 10 TROY 48 72 53 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL COUNTIES. && $$