687 
FXUS65 KBOI 080952
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
252 AM MST WED FEB 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COMPLEX FLOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE PAC COAST AND EVEN INTO THE PAC NW THIS MORNING. WARM-FRONTAL
BAND AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING NE THROUGH
THE CWA TODAY. THE FRONTAL BAND EXTENDED FROM NEAR SEATTLE TO NEAR
SALT LAKE CITY AS OF 2 AM MST...WHILE THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON. THE NAM IS MUCH WETTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS OR THE EC...AND WITH LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS WE BELIEVE THE NAM IS OVERDONE. WE HAVE INCREASED
POPS SOME COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT ANYWHERE
NEAR THE NEW MET NUMBERS. THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND
LEAVES THE AREA IN DRY MILD WEATHER FOR THU. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE EXTENSIVE TODAY...WITH THE LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUING INTO THU AS THE CLOUDS DIMINISH. WITH THE WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TODAY...RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY BECAUSE IT WILL ONLY
TAKE A SMALL BREAK IN THE CLOUDS TO SEND TEMPS UP NEAR 50 IN THE
VALLEYS...MUCH LIKE YDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS STILL ON TRACK 
TO BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW AND BREAK DOWN THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK IS HOW MUCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW REMAINS ALONG THE
WEST COAST...GFS 5 WAVE STILL SHOWING TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND ANOTHER OUT AT 170E WHICH THEREFORE PUTS A RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST INTO NEXT WEEK. ANYWAYS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT
SPLITTING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION BUT WILL KEEP LOW END POPS OVER
NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE NORTHERN SPLIT MOVES
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. RIDGE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY BUT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. BY TUESDAY
MODELS DIVERGE WITH DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW BUT OVERALL EXPECT A
TRANSITION TO A MORE UNSETTLED/PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL START OUT ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND THEN FALL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD
DECKS. BY THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN LOW CLOUDS AND -SHSN AND MTN TOP OBSCURATION
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TODAY AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS IN THE 8 TO 10 KFT LEVEL FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....CR
AVIATION.....CR