836 
FXUS65 KTFX 062141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
241 PM MST MON FEB 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM THE NORTH BY
MORNING AM EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS OF FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA LOWS WILL
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH AREAS OF
DENSE FOG MUCH AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE LAST FEW DAYS.
A GENERALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE
STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ONCE AGAIN. MPJ

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A CONVOLUTED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN EVOLVES LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES UP
INTO WESTERN CANADA MIDWEEK IS PINCHED OFF BY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WHILE THE GFS
MODEL MAINTAINS DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MORNINGS ECMWF AND GEM MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
BIT STRONGER WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND
ALSO WITH THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF A COOLER AIRMASS SLIDING SOUTH
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE THIS WEEK. THIS
LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED DRY
SOLUTION AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO OPEN UP THE POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY POTENTIALLY OVERRUNS THE COOLER AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
MT. HAVE ALSO COOLED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL MT PLAINS. A STRONGER PACIFIC TROF IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE PAC NW COAST SUNDAY WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAKING
IT TO WESTERN MT BY SUN NIGHT. THOUGH THERE IS ABOUT A 6-8 HR
TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS...BOTH
MODELS SHOW THE PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EXPECT MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE SNOW BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX DURING EARLY MON AFTN BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SYSTEM
SWEEPS THROUGH OUR REGION. HOENISCH/WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION 
INTERESTS TODAY AS A COOL/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS HAS SPREAD SOUTH 
ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SW MT. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR 
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND LOWEST CIGS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MTN 
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL MT 
MTNS...INCLUDING THE KHLN/KGTF/KLWT TERMINALS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK 
SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING 
CLEARING TO NORTHERN TERMINALS FIRST AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST 
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOENISCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  12  31  17  44 /  30   0   0   0 
CTB   9  28  15  41 /  20  10   0   0 
HLN  17  32  13  38 /  40  10   0   0 
BZN  12  36   7  42 /  20   0   0   0 
WEY  -1  26  -3  27 /  10   0   0   0 
DLN   9  35  11  40 /  10  10   0   0 
HVR   8  33   7  41 /  10   0   0   0 
LWT  10  28  11  41 /  40  10   0   0 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS