923 
FXUS63 KLBF 290947
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
347 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE MAKING IT ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH IR AND OBS
SHOWING PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS ALSO SHOWING WHERE
THE CLOUDS ARE...AS 09Z OBS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S UNDER DENSE MID
DECK...WHILE TEENS UNDER LESS CLOUDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THE FOCUS IS TEMPS AND RH VALUES. SKIES CONTINUE TO SEE MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE VERSUS WARM BIAS CORRECTED TEMPS DUE TO THE ADDED
CLOUD COVER. WINDS ON THE BREEZY SIDE...FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
WEST...WHICH WILL BRING A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT AND WILL
AID IN GOOD MIXING. MODELS USHER IN WARMER TEMPS AS WEST COAST
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN SOME. HIGHS IN SW NEAR 60...CLOSER TO 50
IN THE FAR NE ZONES. SW NEB WILL AGAIN SEE LOWERING RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP RH VALUES
CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.

AS MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
STREAM FROM THE PACIFIC AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS PUSH NORTH. TEMPS
ALSO ON THE INCREASE...WITH GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
WILL AGAIN SEE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
WINDS...AND SIDED WITH WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AGAIN. RECORDS FOR
MONDAY /LBF AT 66...VTN AT 68...IML AT 63...AND BBW AT 78/ ARE
POSSIBLE FOR LBF AND IML...LIKELY NOT REACHABLE AT VTN OR BBW.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
RESULT IN ONLY AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS OVER THE CWA. TEMPS ALSO GET
KNOCKED DOWN ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY. DESPITE THE
PASSAGE THROUGH BY TUESDAY...HIGHS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL MID
40S TO MID 50S.

NOT MUCH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED THURSDAY...HOWEVER AGAIN LIMITED MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. TEMPS TAKE A SLIGHT HIT BUT STILL AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED LIGHT ACTIVITY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ANYTHING WILL
REACH THE GROUND YET. THE SPLIT OF 12Z MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK HAVE
BECOME IN BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE EC FLIPPING AND IS NOW
CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION. OVERALL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE WARM SIDE BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. EVEN THE LOWEST GFS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS AT OR ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH WEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...A COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.
WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND GRAPHICAL
NOWCAST AND WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...MASEK
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...POWER