782 FXUS61 KCAR 151657 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1157 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA THIS AFTERNOON THEN CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE GRIDS. HAVE REMOVED SOME SOUTHERN ZONES FROM WIND CHILL ADVISORY BASED ON LATEST APPARENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SAT IMG INDICATES SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MAINE. RH PROGS INDICATE THIS CLOUD DECK WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING. WILL START OUT WITH SOME CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS BUT FORECAST SUNNY SKIES BY NOONTIME. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BY THE POSSIBILITY OF STREAMERS OFF THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY WHICH HAPPENED ON SATURDAY. WIND DIRECTION HAS SHIFTED FROM WEST ON SATURDAY TO NORTHWEST TODAY WHICH IS USUALLY NOT A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR STREAMERS OVER MAINE. ALSO THE REGIONAL GEM WHICH DOES AN EXCELLENT JOB ON FORECASTING STREAMERS IS NOT INDICATING ANY STREAMER FORMATION OVER MAINE TODAY. USING THIS INFORMATION WILL NOT FORECAST THE FORMATION OF STREAMERS BUT SOMETHING FOR THE DAY CREW TO MONITOR DURING THE DAY. CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL CROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TODAY IT WILL BE HARD PRESS FOR ANY LOCATION TO GET MUCH HIGHER THAN SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS TODAY EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER JAMES BAY WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND CROSS THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. RH PROGS INDICATE MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES BY MIDNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO OUR WEST, EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WITH MOST LOCATIONS BELOW ZERO, WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. SINCE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY OUT UNTIL NOON TODAY, WILL NOT CONFUSE THE ISSUE AND LET DAY CREW ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES JUST AS COLD TONIGHT AS THIS MORNINGS, IF NOT COLDER IN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS MAY DECOUPLE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTH. A SHALLOW AND FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN LAKES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND TRACK TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY. SOME STEADIER LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN OVERSPREADING SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREA WITH SOME SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN ALONG COASTAL DOWNEAST LOCATIONS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY OVER THE FAR NORTH AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS BEFORE THE SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF AROUND MID MORNING WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE FORECAST MODELS INCLUDING THE CANADIAN GEM AND THE NAM TRACK THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS BUT WOULD PULL THE RAIN/SNOW LINE FURTHER NORTH IN CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW MOVES AWAY WEDNESDAY THEN ANOTHER SMALL AND FAST MOVING LOW APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE PATTERN GENERALLY FAVORS FREQUENT...FAST MOVING SMALL TO MODERATE SIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE RESIDES IN CENTRAL CANADA AND HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY MAY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL LOWER TO IFR DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR OVER THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR LATE THURSDAY AS CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW APPROACH. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEST OF THE WATERS, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS OUR OUTER WATERS. SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY AGAIN REQUIRE A GALE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>005-010. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE