922 FXUS66 KLOX 022329 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 330 PM PST MON JAN 2 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WARM DAYTIME HIGHS AND COOL TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. A SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE PAC NW TODAY WILL DRAG SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT LATEST MODELS NOW MOVE THIS THROUGH MUCH FASTER RATHER THAN LINGER THEM THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE QUITE THICK AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO SHAVE SOME DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPS. THE OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT WILL BE THE MARINE LYR, WHICH OFTEN, THOUGH NOT ALWAYS, MAKES AN ABRUBT EXIT WITH ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS TEND TO FAVOR THIS SCENARIO, WITH LOW CLOUDS RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OBSCURRING THE PICTURE NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION BUT I SUSPECT THERE IS JUST SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG LINGERING THERE AT BEST, AND POSSIBLY NONE AT ALL. CONFIDENCE EXTREMELY LOW ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT IN TERMS OF THE MARINE LYR. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD CERTAINLY PORTEND A MINIMAL FOG FORECAST AT BEST BUT GIVEN THE SLIGHT ONSHORE TRENDS IN THE GRADIENTS AND CURRENT LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS I THINK THERE IS STILL A CHANCE WE COULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING BY LATER TONIGHT. WILL NOT BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND LIKELY VERY LATE DEVELOPMENT AT BEST. FORECAST HIGHS FOR COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT AS THERE IS A VERY FINE LINE BETWEEN THE COLD MARITIME AIR AND THE WARM INTERIOR AIR FROM THE OFFSHORE FLOW. TODAY THAT LINE SHIFTED A FEW MILES INLAND AND KEPT MANY INTERIOR COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM REACHING 80. GIVEN THAT THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE A TAD WEAKER TUESDAY I WOULD THINK COASTAL TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY, THOUGH MOS GUIDANCE IS MUCH WARMER AND THE EXITING LOW CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH MAKES ME WONDER IF MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE ONSHORE TRENDS FOR TOMORROW. IN ANY CASE, A TOUGH COASTAL FORECAST FOR TEMPS. INLAND FROM THIS SHIFTING BOUNDARY TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH EVEN OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE 60S, ESECIALLY IN THE HILLS. AGAIN THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OF THESE NUMBERS TUESDAY, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS ANOTHER LITTLE SURGE IN OFFSHORE FLOW THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT THAT MARITIME BOUNDARY A FEW MILES WEST AND ALLOW SOME COASTAL AREAS TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY EVEN 80S. WARMER ALSO FOR INLAND AREAS AS NORTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHEN A BIT AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS. TODAY'S MODELS INDICATED POSSIBLY A ONE DAY DELAY IN THE BIG COOLING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. GRADIENTS WILL BE TRENDING PRETTY STRONGLY ONSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT POSSIBLY NOT EARLY ENOUGH TO KEEP INLAND AREAS FROM WARMING UP TO NEAR WEDNESDAY'S LEVELS. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING FRIDAY FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPS, THEN A DRY "INSIDE SLIDER" TYPE SYSTEM FOR SAT/SUN. THIS WILL INITIALLY BRING DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, THEN SHIFTING NORTHEAST SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME WARMING LIKELY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY/MONDAY BUT THE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN IT IS NOW SO HIGHS AREN'T LIKELY TO TOP THE LOWER 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...02/2330Z. INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CLEARING WELL OFF THE COAST. DUE TO THE GOOD BURNOFF...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURNING TO COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. IF ANY FOG DOES DEVELOP...THERE WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW AND STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE. FOR NOW...HAVE TRENDED BACK TIMING FOR RETURN OF FOG IN CURRENT TAF PACKAGE...GENERALLY AFTER 08Z. BUT ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TONIGHT FOR THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. KLAX...CONFIDENCE IS NOW LOWER FOR THE RETURN OF DENSE FOG TO KLAX OVERNIGHT AS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETREATING WELL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF DENSE FOG WERE TO REFORM...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 08Z-15Z. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX). HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...WOFFORD AVIATION...GOMBERG SYNOPSIS...SWEET WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES