396 
FXAK67 PAJK 021447
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
547 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...DEEP LOW CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE YUKON. LEAD
OCCLUSION HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A SHARP COLD
FRONT IS JUST ENTERING SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH ALL AREAS BY AROUND NOON.
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF IS RISING QUICKLY AS A RIDGE BUILDS. THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND BE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW NEAR 45/145 WILL
SEND A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF BY
TUESDAY MORNING. 

STRONG WINDS BETWEEN BUILDING RIDGE IN GULF AND LOW OVER YUKON IS
PRODUCING STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THIS MORNING. HAVE A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR PAHN-PAGY THIS
MORNING. AS RIDGE MOVES IN WILL SEE SLY WINDS DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND GO FAIRLY LIGHT BY EVENING. A WESTERLY GALE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AND DROP
BELOW SMCR BY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 30 KT IN SE GULF LATE TONIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S. THIS HAS TURNED PRECIP TO RA IN ALL AREAS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECT PRECIP TO MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING
AND DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WITH JUST LINGERING ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE ALONG COAST
AND COAST MTNS WITH OROGRAPHICS. SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN
AN INCH OR LESS EXCEPT OVER HIGHER OROGRAPHIC FAVORED TERRAIN.
WILL SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS
OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR THE HIGHS FOR THE DAY EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY
WITH CAA AND WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
COULD SEE LOW 20S FOR THE FAR NORTH LATER TONIGHT. ACROSS
SOUTHERN...TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING BUT WILL START TO
RISE LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF FRONT.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRESSURE AND WINDS AND USED AN
EC/GFS BLEND FOR THIS. TEMPERATURE AND SNOW LEVEL GUIDANCE WAS
LESS AGREEABLE AND HAD TO USE A CREATIVE BLEND AND SERP TO GET A
COOLING TREND FOR THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE GULF
TUESDAY. ITS ASSOC FRONTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE STARTING EARLY TUESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG
PRONE COASTAL AREAS. PRECIP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL START OFF AS
SNOW THEN CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE
FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION. FAR NORTHERN AREAS
OF HAINES AND SKAGWAY WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION MOST OF
THE DAY AND LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW. NEW LOW CENTERS OR TROUGHS WILL
DEVELOP AND WRAP AROUND THE MAIN PARENT LOW AS IT PROGRESSES INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING NEW
WAVES OF ENERGY ACROSS WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.

THE LOW BEING TO THE SOUTH STARTING TUESDAY WILL CAUSE NORTH WINDS 
THROUGH INSIDE WATERS...TRANSITIONING TO SOUTH AS THE FIRST TROUGH 
PASSES. THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE WIND SHIFTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
DEPENDING ON NEW LOWS OR TROUGHS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHWARD. 
MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS...KEEPING FORECASTER 
CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTIONS BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY AND 
OVER THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SCATTER OUT SHOWER 
ACTIVITY AND ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT 
EXPECT THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK DUE TO 
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF LATE THURSDAY. 
AGAIN MODEL LOW PLACEMENTS VARY...WHICH WILL DETERMINE TIMING OF 
WIND SHIFTS. BUT IDEA OF THE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA 
STARTING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS SIMILAR. CURRENT MODEL 
850 MB TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE ALL SNOW WITH THIS 
SYSTEM...HOWEVER THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON 
WHERE IT COULD MIX WITH RAIN.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT CAUSING 
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH NORTHERN LYNN CANAL...BEFORE THE 
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF FOR SATURDAY INTO 
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE OUTER 
COASTAL AREAS AND A TRANSITION FROM SNOW BACK TO RAIN.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-051-052. 
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-041>043. 
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053. 

&&

$$

MM/HANNON