557 FXUS62 KMHX 262341 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 641 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY WILL BUILD EAST...PASSING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 635 PM SUNDAY...JUST UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD AN INCH ACCUMULATION TO ADVISORY AS LIGHT SNOW PERSISTS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AROUND 10 PM WITH ALL SNOW ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEGIN TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN NC. WILL UPDATE ZONES AGAIN AROUND 10 PM TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. EXPECT ALL SNOW TO BE OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY WITH DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THE MAIN CONCERN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM SUN...A QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL DROP SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH THEN BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. TEMPS WILL THEN WARM EACH DAY AFTER THAT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S TUESDAY MORNING AND MID TO UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SUN...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND ELONGATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD YIELDS DRY CONDITIONS AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THU AND INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON FRIDAY AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY. SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A DEEPENING RETURN FLOW BOOSTING HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS ON SAT/SUN. WITH THE STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW ALSO COMES THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY LATER ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SHORT WAVE TROF AND ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 635 PM SUNDAY...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN VFR BEFORE DAWN AS THE COASTAL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR DELIVERING TODAYS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...IMPROVING TAFS TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED. && .MARINE... AS OF 420 PM SUNDAY...JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN/OCEAN SIDE OF DARE COUNTY AS WINDS HAVE SWITCHED NORTHWEST AND MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN GUSTS ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM OCRACOKE NORTH. SEAS HAVE BUILT UP TO 14 FT AT DIAMOND SHOALS AND 12 FT AT THE BUOY OFFSHORE DUCK. MAINLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT 41036. COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START PUSHING IN ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...PRODUCING A TIGHT NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS ONCE THE GALES EXPIRE AS NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST SWELL 5 TO 7 FT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE FROM THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW 25 KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS BY MIDWEEK. SWAN WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR USE DURING THIS FORECAST SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SEAS AND NEW WAVE WATCH. WAVE WATCH WAS SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE IN THE SHORT TERM BUT APPEARED FINE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FOR THE EXTENDED WAVE WATCH SUGGESTED SEAS 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT THINK THAT IS UNDERDONE AS WELL...SO WENT WITH 3-4 FT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AND 2-4 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WAVES ACROSS THE SOUNDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 2 FEET FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER. COASTAL FLOODING...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR SPLASH OVER FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE SURGE IN WINDS OCCURRING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHWEST AND THUS WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 PM. MINOR SOUND SIDE FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM OCRACOKE TO RODANTHE DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SOUND SIDE OF OUTER BANKS HYDE/DARE WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ029- 044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ103-104. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ103-104. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...JME/HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JME/DAG MARINE...DAG