597 FXUS61 KRLX 120614 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 114 AM EST FRI NOV 12 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED WARM AFTERNOONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOST PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...AS RIVER WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ELEVATED. OTHERWISE...CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES. FOR TEMPERATURES...BLENDED THE GMOS AND BIAS CORRECTED NAM12 WHICH HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING THE REST OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. WITH NEAR CALM FLOW...PERHAPS VERY LIGHT FROM THE EAST...MINIMUM COMPRESSION WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED RESULTING IN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS. FOR LOWS...RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MID TO LOW 30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FIRST PART OF SHORT TERM REMAINS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT...CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE CONCERNS ON SATURDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DRY FUELS IN PLACE AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...IN THE 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...PREDICTED ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES. PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CWA APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY...LACKS SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE...AND IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA...SO OVERALL RATHER LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOLLOWED HPC AND PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THINKING BY MAINLY RELYING ON THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND PASSES OVERHEAD. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CWA LEADING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK TURNING NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY DENSE RIVER FOG POSSIBLE AT EKN FROM 08-12Z WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES. CALM OR LIGHT WINDS WITH VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD NOT MATERIALIZE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 11/12/10 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L L L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CL/SL/JEE NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JEE AVIATION...ARJ