609 
FXUS65 KLKN 091141
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
441 AM PDT THU SEP 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA AND EASTERN NEVADA
TODAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
LOWER 60S IN MOST PLACES. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING 70. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER ON SATURDAY...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 80. WARM DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BIG PICTURE THIS MORNING
SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE AT 500MB OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...WITH
A TROF OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE IS
PRECIPITATION TODAY.

SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON 500MB TROF CLEARING THE FCST AREA TO
THE EAST BY 00Z THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A TRAILING VORT MAX
WHICH COULD KEEP SHOWERS IN THE JACKPOT AND WEST WENDOVER AREAS
INTO THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON LI'S WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

A NW FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH CAA ADVECTION.
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL TOP
OUT BETWEEN 60 AND 65 IN MOST AREAS. REA

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT JET PASSING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS. BY DAY SEVEN MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL DRIFT CLOSER TO THE GREAT BASIN...ALLOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TOWARD EAST-
CENTRAL NEVADA. IF THIS VERIFIES...EXPECT AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUD
BUILD-UPS OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BRINGS RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS TO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE IN THE ONE TENTH TO A HALF
INCH RANGE BY THIS EVENING...SO CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG FRIDAY
MORNING. 
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE FCST AREA IS
BRINGING WETTING RAINS TO ALL FIRE WX ZONES EXCEPT 455 AND 457.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS WILL BE IN ZONES
468...469...470...AND THE NORTHEAST HALF OF 455. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY.
FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO WARM FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 80. DRY
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 80 AND 85. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE
LOW SIDE WITH GENERALLY POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REA &&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&

$$

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