024 
FXUS63 KMPX 171016 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
515 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TREND. TWO WAVES TO OUR
SOUTH IN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH...ONE OVER EAST CENTRAL KS AND
THE OTHER OVER SE MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE ON THE ESE TRACK KEEPING
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. STILL SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE OUR AREA ON
THE NORTH PERIPHERY WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN ABOUT THE SAME COVERAGE
TODAY...BUT THEN THINNING OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT THE HEAVIER CU
OVER NW WISC YESTERDAY AND THE KDLH RADAR TREND OF THE LAKE
BREEZE...IT SEEMS THAT A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL DEVELOP TODAY.
THE MODELS STILL WANT TO BRING UP SFC DEW POINTS IN THE THAT AREA
BUT TRENDING DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. VALUES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
WERE MAINLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WILL KEEP ISOLD SHOWER WORDING
BUT KEEP OUT THE THUNDER FOR NOW. BETTER SREF THUNDER PROBS HAVE
BEEN JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND IN NE MN. 

OTHERWISE THE THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON A DECREASING TREND
TONIGHT AND REMAIN QUITE LOW AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN
LEVEL OUT FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL
INCREASE UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NOT A BIG CHANGE IN
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.

LONGER RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS A WARM PATTERN
CONTINUING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN
DRIVING AN INITIAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. THE NAEFS IS CLOSER TO
THE ECMWF IN SPEED. THE NAEFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
OR SUNDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE EAST UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE A BUILDING RIDGE UPPER RIDGE FOR A TIME TO OUR SE WITH
MAYBE A STRUNG OUT BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

VFR CONDS THRUT PERIOD.  SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING THROUGH MID/LATE 
MORNING WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO 7-8K FT IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD SHRA 
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST FA AS LAKE BREEZE SHOULD MOVE WEST DURING THE 
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THIS MAY AFFECT THE KRNH AREA LATE AFTERNOON OR 
EARLY EVENING IF BOUNDARY MAKES IT THIS FAR.  WILL MENTION THE 
CUMULUS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS THIS 
MORNING...SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EVENING.  LIGHT EAST TO 
SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS.  AFTERNOON MIX COULD 
GENERATE A GUST TO 18KTS OR SO...BUT THAT LIMITED TO KRWF FOR NOW. 
 
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY E WINDS LESS THAN 
12KTS. SOME CUMULUS/CIRRUS DURING TH DAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS 
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.   



&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JPR/DWE