001 FXUS62 KTAE 060136 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 830 PM EST FRI MAR 5 2010 ...FREEZE WARNING LATE TONIGHT EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST... .SYNOPSIS... AT 8 PM EST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR MARRED BY PASSING CIRRUS. TEMPS RANGED FROM LOW 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST. WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM TO NLY 5 MPH. AT UPPER LEVELS... THE LARGE SCALE CONUS PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HIGHLIGHTED BY A TROUGH JUST OFF W COAST WITH LOW JUST OFF CA/OR BORDER...RIDING OVER WRN STATES...A TROUGH NEAR COLORADO WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES...A PENCIL RIDGE FROM ERN PLAINS EWD TO WRN GREAT LAKES AND SWD THRU WRN GULF...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. ALL THIS RESULTS IN A WELL ESTABLISHED BLOCKING PATTERN YIELDING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WITH FAIR SKIES OVER SE REGION. ONLY CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY IS THAT BLOCKING SYSTEM HAS LIFTED FAR ENOUGH SWD (WITH ERN LOW DROPPING SWD) THAT SOUTHERN STREAM IS ADVECTING IN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WRN GULF EWD. AS UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER SWD OVERNIGHT...CIRRUS WILL BE SHUNTED FURTHER SWD. STILL LOCAL AIRMASS REMAINS BONE DRY AS REFLECTED IN 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS. I.E. TAE WITH 0.19 INCH PWAT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ALONG PAC COAST WILL DIG SEWD IMPACTING CA...SRN GREAT BASIN...SW DESERTS. DOWNSTREAM H5 TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WHILE PROGRESSING ESEWD THROUGH THE MO/MS VALLEYS WITH ASSOCD LOW MOVING OVER RIDGE INTO PLAINS...MID CONUS RIDGE WILL CONT EWD KICKING ERN TROUGH INTO ATLC. LOCAL IMPACT WILL BUILDING HEIGHTS WITH THE HIGH OVER NE GULF. AT LOWER LEVELS... MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AXIS EAST OF MS RIVER VALLEY. DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...AS A RESULT OF ABOVE UPPER SYSTEMS...THE HIGH WILL SINK SWD TO OVER THE SE REGION ON SAT DOWN TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES ON SUN WITH WARMING HIGHS BUT CONTINUED COLD MINS. NEAREST WX MAKER ASSOCD WITH WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEB/IA WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT LOCAL REGION TUES EVE INTO THURS. && .SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY). THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH WINDS DECOUPLING. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED SWD...EXPECT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS AWAY FROM COAST. EXPECT LOWS UPPER 20S TO LOWERS INLAND TO MID 30S AT COAST WITH 4B TO 5 HOURS AT COLDEST SPOTS. AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE A FREEZE (AWAY FROM COAST) WILL STILL HAVE AREAS OF FROST TO CONTEND WITH AND THIS IS ALREADY HANDLED NICELY IN THE GRIDS. && .AVIATION... UNLIMITED VIS/CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...DESPITE OCCASIONAL CS (25K FT). DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LOCAL RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE PLUMES FROM WILD OR PRESCRIBED BURNS. && .MARINE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING NEAR THE MARINE AREA...NO HEADLINES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...SO WE EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITION AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 5 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON. GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS... CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY... EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER... MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL... THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH. FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN... CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY... GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER... MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL... THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH. FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES... INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON... LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TO 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN... COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF... HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE... LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. GM...NONE. && $$ BLOCK/MROCZKA