593 
FXUS66 KLOX 140532 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 PM PST SAT FEB 13 2010

UPDATE FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...WITH 
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE 
THE SEASONAL NORMALS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEING THE 
WARMEST DAYS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE ALONG OR 
JUST OFF THE SLO COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL LOW 
CLOUDS ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOUTH TO THE 
SBA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG 
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND OFFSHORE FLOW MAY 
PUSH THE LOW CLOUDS BACK OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LOW 
CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN THE 
SALINAS RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL COVER MOST 
OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST 
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY N TO NE CANYON WINDS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER 
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY 
LEVELS...EXCEPT LOCAL OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER ADVISORY LEVELS CANNOT 
BE RULED OUT FOR THE L.A./VTU MTNS INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN CA SUN THRU TUE. DRY 
WEATHER WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. 
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND 
FOG AFFECTING THE SLO INTERIOR VALLEYS DURING THE PERIOD...AS WELL 
AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE VTU/L.A. COUNTY COAST MON 
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW 
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU TUE. 
OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH LOCAL GUSTY NE CANYON 
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD 
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART AS THERE WILL BE 
LITTLE IF ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONG WINDS. TEMPS WILL WARM 
EVEN FURTHER IN ALL AREAS...WITH HIGHS 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL 
THROUGH TUE.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE WED-FRI, THOUGH 
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH MOSTLY 60S 
TO LOWER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF NEXT 
WEEKEND AS MODELS ARE HINTING THAT SOMETHING WILL START TO UNDERCUT 
THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA. NOT SEEING MUCH 
MOISTURE WITH IT ON EITHER THE ECMWF OR GFS SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE 
THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...14/0530Z...OVERALL THERE IS HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT 
TAF PACKAGE. TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB LATE 
TONIGHT MAY BE OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT THERE IS GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE 
THESE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT INTO 
SUN MORNING.

.KLAX AND KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAFS.

...NOTE...
THE ASOS EQUIPMENT AT KBUR...KVNY...KHHR...KCMA...AND KOXR HAS A 
SOFTWARE ERROR THAT MAY LEAD TO INCORRECT CLOUD HEIGHTS WHEN THERE 
ARE TWO OR MORE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT. OBSERVATIONS AT KBUR WILL BE 
QUALITY CONTROLLED 24 HOURS A DAY...OBSERVATIONS AT KVNY WILL BE 
QUALITY CONTROLLED FROM 13Z-07Z...OBSERVATIONS AT KOXR WILL BE 
QUALITY CONTROLLED FROM 15Z-05Z. TAFS FOR KVNY AND KOXR WILL NOT BE 
AMENDED FOR CIGS DURING THE TIME THE OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT MONITORED 
AND THERE ARE TWO OR MORE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/WOFFORD
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

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