465 FXUS62 KTAE 192113 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 413 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2010 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)... EXPECT THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. OUTSIDE A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ...THERE WAS DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND ALL INDICATE INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN TRENDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE THURSDAY...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST OF THIS TRACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EASTERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES...THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS SW GA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE OUTPUT LOW TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-800 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WEST OF THE RIVER OVER SE AL AND THE ERN PANHANDLE COME THURSDAY WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE. HOWEVER...TWO MAIN LIMITING FACTORS TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER OUR AREA WILL BE THE POSITION OF THIS UPPER ENERGY BEING FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL REDUCE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM/ECMWF VERIFY. BL INSTABILITY CLOSER TO COAST OVER THE PANHANDLE MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY DUE TO THE VERY COOL SHELF WATERS WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 50S. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE ISOLATED SVR TSTMS IN THE GRIDS WEST OF THE RIVER ON THURSDAY. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... AFTER THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING...ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD STRETCH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS NOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING WITH THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A COLDER AIRMASS RETURNING FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE ...MAY ADJUST HIGHS AND LOWS DOWN A BIT BASED ON A BLEND WITH THE RAW GFS40 SFC AFTER THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. && .MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A RESULT ...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THIS SAME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES BACK OVERHEAD. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLOUD DECK WAVERING AT MVFR LEVELS SLID ASHORE ACROSS KPFN THIS MORNING AND IS SCATTERING OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL BE VFR BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. DUE TO THE FOGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPFN...ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY FALL TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS. KPFN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE AIRPORT MINIMUMS BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. BY THE LATE MORNING TOMORROW...LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH AND A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM. ALL LOCATION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. && ..FIRE WEATHER...OUR NEXT RAIN MAKER WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS NOW...THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS STORM. BEHIND THIS STORM...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TIME TO DRY OUT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES BY LATE WEEKEND. ALL THIS SAID...THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 42 71 56 71 53 / 0 10 50 80 30 PANAMA CITY 50 64 59 66 53 / 0 40 60 70 20 DOTHAN 46 68 57 73 54 / 0 40 70 80 20 ALBANY 42 68 55 72 52 / 0 20 60 70 20 VALDOSTA 41 71 55 71 55 / 0 0 50 80 40 CROSS CITY 42 70 54 73 60 / 0 0 40 90 40 APALACHICOLA 48 60 58 62 54 / 0 30 50 90 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ GIBBS/HARRIGAN/GOULD