075 
FXUS66 KLOX 081811
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1010 AM PST FRI JAN 8 2010

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS... 

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH 
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 
HIGHS 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AT THE 
IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION 
AND SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE, JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS 
DRIFTING OVERHEAD TODAY, A LITTLE THICKER TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH 
SUNDAY WITH THAT SYSTEM OFFSHORE MOVING INLAND BUT NO PRECIPITATION.

*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...BRINGING CONTINUED DRY AND
WARM WEATHER TO THE AREA. ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BOTH MODELS 
INDICATE A DECENT TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH 
MUCH COOLER TEMPS. ON THURSDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AS
A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOME NORTHERLY
FLOW...THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...08/1800Z.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH WHILE A 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE AREA. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL 
WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST WHILE LIGHT MID LEVEL NORTH WINDS 
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER 09/15Z. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE EARLY THEN WEAK OFFSHORE 
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 09/06Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS 
AROUND 12KFT AND WILL CHANGE LITTLE.     

KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE HZ AND/OR BR WILL RESTRICT VSBY AT TIMES 
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

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