000 FXUS62 KILM 270759 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 259 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009 .SYNOPSIS... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH TODAY. DAYTIME WINDS WILL EASE BY SATURDAY AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND PULLS FARTHER AWAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD AND SETTLES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THIS FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA PRESENTLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NC. DEEP LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE WILL JUST SKIRT THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ROUGHLY ILM TO FLO AND POINTS NORTH. THERE HAS BEEN THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL WELL TO THE NORTHWEST IN CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT THUNDER OR HAIL TO REACH THIS FAR SOUTH SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP THE BEST LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA. TEMP FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. NO FROST IS EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL STAY UP THRU THE NIGHT...GENERALLY 10-20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WITH A BROADER RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SAT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS MAY AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TEMPS TO DROP AS MUCH AS THEY COULD UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT EXPECT TEMPS IN THE 30S ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT SAT. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF SHORE AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING WARMER AND MOISTER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. PCP WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE UP ABOVE A HALF INCH BY SUN AFTN...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PCP UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OVERALL SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WITH AIR MASS MODERATING EXPECT AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE 40S WITH LOWER VALUES IN TRADITIONALLY COOLER PLACES && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIP FARTHER OFF SHORE ON MONDAY AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER DRY WARM DAY ON MONDAY IN AN INCREASING SW RETURN FLOW. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY AS WINDS HAVE STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP NEAR 70. SHOULD JUST SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INITIALLY BUT PCP SHOULD HOLD OUT UNTIL LATER ON MON. BEST CHC OF PCP WILL COME MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES. COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST TUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT ON TUES. THE FRONT SHOULD GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT WE MAY SEE CLEARING BY AFTN ON TUES. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH TEMPS DOWN 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THE DAY BEFORE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON TUES...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM THE GULF COAST ON WED BRINGING PCP BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WED. COULD TURN OUT TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT ON WED BEFORE LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT LATE THURS INTO FRI. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING GUSTY W/NW WINDS AND SOME MVFR CIGS...BUT VFR WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL TERMINALS BY MORNING AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. CURRENT 11U-3.9U MICRON SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. LBT/FLO EXPERIENCED SOME MVFR CIGS WITH THE FROPA...AND EXPECT ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF 2500 FOOT CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MYR WHICH MAY LIE TOO FAR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT HAS REALLY DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AND ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER AT LBT/ILM...CHANCES ARE NOT EVEN HIGH ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT MENTION A VCNTY SHRA IN THE TAFS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE INITIAL STRONG W/NW WINDS DURING AND JUST AFTER CFP...AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BELIEVE ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE SOME 20 TO POSSIBLY 30 KT WIND GUSTS AT THE INITIAL SURGE OF CAA OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MORE GENERAL 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT THRU FRIDAY SUNSET. IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING STRONG W/NW WINDS TO MIX DOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE...BUT NOT UNTIL THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH MONDAY. POSSIBLE IFR WITH RAIN TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... EXPECT W TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT TO BECOME NW AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AT 20 NM WILL BUILD TO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE BY DAYBREAK. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH SAT...GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND CAA WILL SHUT OFF AND THEREFORE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 3 FT BY SAT AFTN AND WILL ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY STARTING SUN AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF SHORE AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT SUN INTO EARLY MON AND THEREFORE SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 2 TO 4 FT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY MON AFTN IN THIS TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. SEAS JUST STARTING TO RISE BY LATE SUN AND THEN INCREASING THROUGH MON WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SHOULD REACH JUST NEAR SCA CRITERIA IN OUTER WATERS MON NIGHT BEFORE FROPA HEADING INTO TUES MORNING. THE OFF SHORE FLOW BEHIND FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO DECREASE ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE THROUGH TUES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039. NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ087-096- 099. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ252-254- 256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250. && $$ NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DCH/JW