000 FXUS66 KLOX 171134 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 330 AM PST TUE NOV 17 2009 .SYNOPSIS... IT WILL BE WARM AGAIN TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COOL THINGS OFF ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM...THEN COOL DOWN AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND WARM BACK UP AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)... OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT IT IS WEAKER AND ANY CANYON WINDS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED AND IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YDY ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS AND WARMER ACROSS INTERIOR SINCE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DONE. A WEAK TROF MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT AND WILL TURN THE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AS WELL AS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONSHORE. THIS SWITCH TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL COAST. NORTH FLOW WILL PILE SOME CLOUDS UP AGAINST THE NORTH SLOPES AND ALSO PRODUCE A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TWO DAYS OF MDL RUNS SHOWING NO RAIN ANYWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS A RESULT REMOVED POPS AND RAIN WORDING FROM ZONES SAVE THE NORTH SLOPES WHERE THE UPSLOPING WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL FALL ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTY BUT THATS IT. TEMPS WILL CRASH DOWN WITH THE LOWER HGTS MORE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. A LITTLE RIDGE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE THURSDAY A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RISING 3 OR 4 DEGREES MOST PLACES. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)... A LITTLE MORE ROBUST FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS KEEPS IT TOGETHER ALL THE WAY THROUGH L.A. COUNTY. THE EC IS A LITTLE WEAK BUT STILL MANAGES TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE RAIN OVER ALL AREAS. RIGHT NOW THE GFS TIMING HAS THE RAIN BAND MOVING INTO SLO COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING THROUGH L.A. COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING. MDL CONTINUITY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD DAY SHIFT DID A GOOD JOB RAISING POPS TO CHC NORTH SLGT CHC SOUTH AND WILL STICK FOR THOSE. BUT THIS DOES LOOK LIKE A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. CANNOT SEE THIS FRONT GIVING ANYTHING MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH AND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS MORE REALISTIC ESP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT SATURDAY BUT IT WILL BE COOL. COOL DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH OF A WARM UP SUNDAY BUT IT WILL AT LEAST BE SUNNY. IT LIKELY WILL BE BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL. IF THE DAY 7 FORECAST IS TO BE BELIEVED A LITTLE RIDGE ALONG WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND PRODUCE A DECENT WARM UP OVER THE COASTS AND VLYS. && .AVIATION... 17/1120Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT WITH NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED. AFTER 06Z...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS AND OVER KPRB. KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH NO WIND ISSUES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER 09Z TONIGHT...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS COULD ARRIVE SLIGHTLY LATER BY 12Z. KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...RORKE AVIATION...HALL SYNOPSIS...ASR WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES