000 FXUS62 KILM 160318 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1015 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2009 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM CANADA WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TUES BEHIND A VERY WEAK AND DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH INLAND DURING THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS EVE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT COMPLIMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT. LITTLE TO NO WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL OPTIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS. ALREADY THIS EVE...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NEAR NIL. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...MEETING RESISTANCE AS THERE WILL BE NO INFLUX OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIGHT AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AT GROUND LEVEL AND THEN EXPAND AND DEEPEN WITH TIME...ENHANCED BY WET GROUND. INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG MOST LOCATIONS...AND SOME OF THIS FOG WILL BE DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IF AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. IN THOSE TRADITIONALLY COLD SPOTS...TEMPS WILL DIP WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S. MINIMUMS IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. MAY SEE SOME FOG TO START...BUT OVERALL EXPECT SUNNY WEATHER WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL JUST START TO SLIP OFF SHORE WITH A SW FLOW SETTING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. A MASSIVE CLOSED LOW AT THE MID LEVELS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AGAINST THE RIDGE WITH LOCAL AREA REMAINING IN AN INCREASING SW FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA ON MON WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. IT WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH TUES PUSHING DOWN A WEAK BOUNDARY OR BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS AS IF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE DOWN BY TUES MORNING PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN ANYTHING ELSE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW. THIS INCREASING ON SHORE FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH H85 WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH TUES AND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND ABOVE THE SURFACE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SE-S ABOVE THE SURFACE...WILL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND PCP TUES INTO WED MORNING...BUT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL POSSIBLY WED AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE TO START. PCP WATER WILL INCREASE FROM LESS THAN .5 INCHES UP TO 1.25 INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE LOCKED IN WITHIN THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ALSO WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS IN SW FLOW ABOVE H5 THROUGH TUES. THEREFORE TUES SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL THEREFORE BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NOT MUCH CONSISTENCY BEING SHOWN FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE LATEST RUN BACKS OFF ON LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH IS BETTER IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLES. AT ANY RATE...A COASTAL TROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH ONSHORE DURING THURSDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE MID-WEST AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF POPS IN THE LATE WED INTO THU TIME FRAME. LESS CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA FRIDAY SUGGESTS MEX POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MEX NUMBERS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE TOO WARM WED THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO THU AND FRI. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ALL TERMINALS ARE VFR AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. WINDS ARE CALM EXCEPT AT MYR WHERE WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS. SOME THIN SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS BEGINNING OT DEVELOP AT ILM. CLEAR SKIES...CALM SURFACE WINDS AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AND CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR FOG FORMATION. AS PER THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE LIKELY DRIED AND MIXED OUT SOME TODAY...SO DONT EXPECT AS EARLY AN ONSET OF FOG AS LAST NIGHT. STILL...PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH VISIBILITIES AT SOME TERMINALS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND VFR AS EARLY AS 02Z AS THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW GROUND FOG VARIES. THINK FOG PRONE CRE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF TEMPO IFR THIS EVENING...WITH THE REMAINING TERMINALS HAVING TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER MIDNIGHT THINK ALL TERMINALS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES. AGAIN...THE FOG DEPTH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY DEEP THUS VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE. AS A RESULT WILL INDICATE TEMPO IFR VISIBILITIES IN TAFS...WITH THE BEST WINDOW OF OCCURRENCE 09-12Z. VFR EXPECTED AFTER 13Z-14Z WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE IFR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 PM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS WELL OUT TO SEA NOW BUT THE SWELL IT HAS KICKED UP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL AFFECTING OUR WATERS. AN E SWELL IS THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO THE OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT. SEA WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER THAN WIND SPEEDS WOULD INDICATE INTO MON. PERIODS WILL BE IN THE 11 TO 14 SECOND RANGE. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE N AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR W DICTATES WIND DIRECTION. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SLACK. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MON AND MON NIGHT WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN AND GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO AROUND 20 KT BY TUE EVENING WITH SEAS INCREASING UP NEAR SCA CRITERIA MAINLY IN OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE FLOW EAST OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE FROM THE EAST. THE WIND WILL WEAKEN AND VEER TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OR BECOME VARIABLE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE LATEST GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH BACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING AN OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP THAT MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY DEPENDING ON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP FROM AN EASTERLY SWELL THROUGH FRIDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...LATEST TIDE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RUN 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMALLY PREDICTED TIDES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH THE AREA WITHIN THE FINAL PHASE OF THE HIGHER NEW MOON ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE MONDAY MORNING...THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THOSE PRONE LOCATIONS. HAVE LOOKED AT THE FOLLOWING GAGES JOHNNY MERCER...SPRINGMAID PIER...AND THEN THE LAGGING HIGH TIDES AT NIXONS CROSSROADS...HAGLEY LANDING...WILMINGTON AND GEORGETOWN. AND ALL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL FROM TIDAL/SURGE INFLUENCES. AS A RESULT...WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE WINDOW SURROUNDING THE TIME OF MONDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR SCZ034- 046. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR NCZ097- 100-101. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...MRR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH