000 FXUS63 KPAH 131114 AAA AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 614 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009 .UPDATE... DISCUSSION FOR 12Z SUNDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE /SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW/. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009/ THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS YIELDS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FEATURES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER THE 00Z SUN UA ANALYSIS DEPICT TWO CLOSED LOWS OVER THE PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN LOW OVER TX WILL SLOWLY MEANDER TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. AS WITH PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GFS STILL REMAINS THE DRY MODEL. HOWEVER THE 00Z SUN NAM IS NOW KEEPING IT DRY UNTIL MONDAY. THE 12Z SAT ECMWF IS BRINGING A LITTLE MOISTURE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OVERTAKES THE FA OVNGT TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOMETHING FLIRTING WITH OUR SOUTHERN BORDER THIS AFTN. AFTER THAT THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE TWO GROWS EXPONENTIALLY. THUS WILL KEEP THE POPS IN THE GRIDS BUT MAYBE SPREAD THEM A LITTLE EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTEHRN BORDER. WILL NOT GO WITH THE ROBUST ECMWF ATTM. WILL LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP SIMILAR TO WHATS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS AND REFLECTS THE LATEST GFS RUN THE BEST. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STAYING AT BAY SOUTH OF THE FA. WILL LIKELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS. PLAN ON ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT COOLER YET AGAIN. && .AVIATION... CIRRUS SHIELD DEVELOPING NEWD OF THE CLOSED LOW IN NERN TX WILL BE THE MAIN CLOUD COVER IMPACT FOR THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL AND RELATIVE DRY NELY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CIRRUS DECK BETWEEN 15-30KFT AGL. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY FOR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SMITH