000 
FXUS64 KMEG 240744
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
244 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS HEIGHT RIDGE REMAINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO.

FOR TODAY...THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...
ONE DROPPING INTO CENTRAL KY/EAST TN...AND THE OTHER THROUGH THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKIES...
MIDSOUTH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90S MOST PLACES. WILL GO A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN GFS MOS TEMPS DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE. SUSPECT THAT GFS MOS IS BEING TUGGED A BIT BY LATE
JULY CLIMATOLOGY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARS ON TRACK TO SETTLE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
ON SUNDAY. GFS MOS AND NAM SURFACE PROGS SUGGEST DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES...POOLING NEAR THE FRONT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW
FLATTENS A BIT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CARVES OUT THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ONTARIO CENTERED UPPER
LEVEL TROF. THIS ENERGY ARRIVES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LIFTS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY IF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF. THUS FAR...
THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.

LATE WEEK SHOULD SEE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE OVER THE MIDSOUTH...
OVERSPREADING WARM...HUMID AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE
SUBTLE FEATURES...BUT THE PATTERN AT LEAST APPEARS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR CHANCE POPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME 
AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE 
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY 
AFTER SUNRISE WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON 
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 
5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

ARS/KRM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  92  71  94  72 /   0   0  10  20 
MKL  89  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  30 
JBR  91  65  93  66 /   0   0  10  30 
TUP  91  63  93  66 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$