000 FXUS63 KMPX 032003 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2009 .DISCUSSION... WIDESRPEAD AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS WC INTO SC MN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD EASTERN SODAK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO W NEB/SW SODAK. EASTWARD PUSH OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAS BEEN A BIT SLOW...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PROBABLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN WEAK AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN CENTRAL MN. 12Z NAM 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE APPEARS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL MN AND PORTIONS OF WC WI. INCREASED POPS FOR TONIGHT TO UNCATEORICAL ACROSS ABOUT THE SW HALF OF CWA WITH POPS TRAILING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY IN NE PORTIONS OF CWA IN WISCONSIN. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS MOST AREAS BY 12Z...WITH EXCEPTION OF SC MN INTO THE EAU AREA. UPPED MIN TEMPS A BIT TONIGHT AS WELL WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS. OTHER THAN LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS SE PORTIONS AREA...THE 4TH LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND A LIGHT NW WIND. HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON SC MN WITH NAM/GFS STILL SHOWING SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE PRESENT. NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THRU AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INTRO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WI CWA INTO S PORTIONS OF MN CWA WITH FEATURE MOVING THRU AT FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY. NW FLOW CONTINUES THRU MONDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARM RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS AREA MID WEEK BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS BREAK DOWN RIDGE SOMEWHAT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING A COUPLE OF TROUGHS TO MOVE THRU BRINING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. MOIST MID LEVEL ASCENT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THIS ACTIVITY HAS EXPANDED INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MN. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS AT ODDS ON THE COVERAGE/EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT SET OF TAFS. KRWF WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD AND WILL CLIP KAXN AND KSTC THIS AFTERNOON. KSTC SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THINGS A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH. KMSP WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SO INCREASED TO PREVAILING -RA DURING THE EVENING BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP AT KRNH AND KEAU AS THEY WILL BE ON THE FRINGES SO WILL RETAIN VCSH MENTION FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL BRING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY AND PERHAPS A BRIEF MVFR CIG. KRWF MAY SETTLE INTO MVFR VISBY OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE DIRECTION TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR KRWF WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND SKIES SCATTER OUT. ..MDB.. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ BAP/MB